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Finished · Africa Cup of Nations
Egypt
0 : 0
Nigeria
Match info
Status
Finished (pens)
Date
2026/01/17 · 16:00
Round
3rd place
Stadium
Stade Mohammed V — Casablanca
Referee
Jalal Jayed
AI predictionExpected goals 1.5 : 0.8
🧠 The model favours Egypt at 53%, with expected goals 2-1, and the likeliest scorer is Mohamed Salah (86%).
Egypt 53% Draw 27% Nigeria 20%
Egypt 0% Draw 0% Nigeria 0%
0 votes
Confidence 55% Medium confidence
📈 In great form Egypt 📈 In great form Nigeria
Most likely score 1 - 0 15%
Both teams to score 43% No
Over / Under 2.5 Under 60%
Over 2.5 40%Under 2.5 60%
Win Probability
100%
Egypt 0% Draw 100% Nigeria 0%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
Mohamed Salah
🏠 Egypt
86%
V. Osimhen
✈️ Nigeria
33%
A. Lookman
✈️ Nigeria
26%
A. Adams
✈️ Nigeria
18%
Team comparison API-Football
Egypt Nigeria
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
43%
Team strength
33%
H2H
43%Strength57%
37%Attacking strength63%
43%Defensive strength57%
28%Poisson distribution72%
33%Head-to-head67%
40%Expected goals60%
57%
Team strength
67%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Double chance : draw or Nigeria
Head-to-head Last 3
1Egypt win
0Draw
2Nigeria win
2025/12/16 Egypt 2 : 1 Nigeria
2022/01/11 Nigeria 1 : 0 Egypt
2019/03/26 Nigeria 1 : 0 Egypt
Key events
📺Paul Onuachu
Goal cancelled
38'
🟨Paul Onuachu
Yellow Card
39'
🟨Moses Simon
Yellow Card
45'
🔄A. Lookman⟵P. Onuachu
Substitution
46'
🔄M. Saber⟵Trezeguet
Substitution
60'
🔄O. Marmoush⟵Zizo
Substitution
60'
🔄A. Iwobi⟵B. Osayi-Samuel
Substitution
65'
🔄I. Adel⟵Mostafa Mohamed
Substitution
73'
🟨Igoh Ogbu
Yellow Card
87'
🔄C. Awaziem⟵S. Ajayi
Substitution
90+3'
🔄C. Ejuke⟵S. Chukwueze
Substitution
90+1'
Lineup
23
S. Nwabali 8.6
13
B. Onyemaechi 7.3
5
I. Ogbu 6.9
6
▾
S. Ajayi 7.3
2
▾
B. Osayi-Samuel 7
15
M. Simon 6.9
18
R. Onyedika 7.2
10
F. Dele-Bashiru 6
11
▾
S. Chukwueze 8
19
▾
P. Onuachu 6.3
22
A. Adams 5.9
26
O. Shobeir 8
3
M. Hany 7.7
14
H. Fathy 7.9
5
R. Rabia 8
2
K. Sobhi 7
25
▾
Zizo 6.6
17
M. Lasheen 7.5
10
M. Salah 6
8
E. Ashour 7.2
7
▾
Trezeguet 6.5
11
▾
Mostafa Mohamed 6.5
Nigeria 4-4-2
Substitutes
46′ ▲7 6.9 A. Lookman ▾ P. Onuachu 65′ ▲17 7.3 A. Iwobi ▾ B. Osayi-Samuel 90′ ▲20 C. Awaziem ▾ S. Ajayi 90′ ▲24 C. Ejuke ▾ S. Chukwueze
Coaching staff
Éric Sékou Chelle Manager
Bench
16 A. Obasogie GK 1 F. Uzoho GK 27 R. Alebiosu DEF 3 Zaidu DEF 26 E. Akinsanmiro MID 28 T. Nnadi MID 8 F. Onyeka MID 14 U. Mohammed 25 S. Lawal FWD 9 V. Osimhen FWD 4 W. Ndidi MID
Egypt
Substitutes
60′ ▲27 7.2 M. Saber ▾ Trezeguet 60′ ▲22 5.7 O. Marmoush ▾ Zizo 73′ ▲20 6.9 I. Adel ▾ Mostafa Mohamed
Bench
1 A. El Shenawy GK 23 M. El Shenawy GK 16 M. Sobhi GK 28 M. Ismail DEF 24 A. Eid DEF 15 M. Shehata MID 18 M. Fathi FWD 21 O. Faisal FWD
Player rating API-Football
Egypt
26
Mostafa Shobeir
GK · 90′
8
5
Rami Rabia
DEF · 90′
8
14
Hamdy Fathy
DEF · 90′
7.9
3
Mohamed Hany
DEF · 90′
7.7
17
Mohanad Lasheen
MID · 90′
7.5
8
Emam Ashour
MID · 90′
7.2
27
Mahmoud Saber
MID · 30′ · Substitute
7.2
2
Khaled Sobhi
DEF · 90′
7
20
Ibrahim Adel
MID · 17′ · Substitute
6.9
25
Zizo
MID · 60′
6.6
7
Mahmoud Trézéguet
MID · 60′
6.5
11
Mostafa Mohamed
FWD · 73′
6.5
10
Mohamed Salah C
MID · 90′
6
22
Omar Marmoush
FWD · 30′ · Substitute
5.7
16
Mohamed Sobhi
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
1
Ahmed El-Shenawy
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
23
Mohamed El-Shenawy
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
24
Ahmed Eid
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
28
Mohamed Ismail
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
18
Mostafa Fathy
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
15
Mohamed Shehata
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
21
Osama Faisal
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
Nigeria
23
Stanley Nwabali
GK · 90′
8.6
11
Samuel Chukwueze
MID · 89′
8
6
Semi Ajayi
DEF · 89′
7.3
13
Bruno Onyemaechi
DEF · 90′
7.3
17
Alex Iwobi
FWD · 25′ · Substitute
7.3
18
Raphael Onyedika
MID · 90′
7.2
2
Bright Osayi-Samuel
DEF · 65′
7
5
Igoh Ogbu
DEF · 90′ · 🟨
6.9
15
Moses Simon C
MID · 90′ · 🟨
6.9
7
Ademola Lookman
FWD · 45′ · Substitute
6.9
19
Paul Onuachu
FWD · 45′ · 🟨
6.3
10
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
MID · 90′
6
22
Akor Adams
FWD · 90′
5.9
20
Chidozie Awaziem
DEF · 1′ · Substitute
—
24
Chidera Ejuke
FWD · 1′ · Substitute
—
1
Francis Uzoho
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
16
Amas Obasogie
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
3
Zaidu Sanusi
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
28
Tochukwu Nnadi
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
26
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
14
Usman Mohammed
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
27
Ryan Alebiosu
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
8
Frank Onyeka
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
4
Wilfred Ndidi
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
25
Salim Fago Lawal
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
9
Victor Osimhen
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
Egypt × Nigeria
20% Shot Accuracy
85% Pass Accuracy
53% Possession
Egypt Nigeria
5Shots4
1Shots on Target4
2Shots off Target0
2Shots Inside Box2
3Shots Outside Box2
2Blocked Shots1
459Passes393
392Accurate Passes341
2Corners4
3Offsides4
4Goalkeeper saves1
21Tackles13
6Interceptions10
0Blocks (defensive)2
44Duels Won39
15Fouls16
0Yellow Cards3
—Red Cards—
100% Shot Accuracy
87% Pass Accuracy
47% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Egypt
Mohamed Hany
1
Khaled Sobhi
1
Zizo
1
Nigeria
Bruno Onyemaechi
1
Moses Simon
1
Ademola Lookman
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
Group B
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Egypt 3210 +27
2 South Africa 3201 +16
3 Angola 3021 −12
4 Zimbabwe 3012 −21
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