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Finished · CONCACAF Gold Cup
Mexico
1 : 0
Honduras
Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2025/07/03 · 02:00
Round
Semi-final
Stadium
Levi's Stadium — Santa Clara, California
Referee
Juan Calderón
AI predictionExpected goals 0.8 : 0.3
🧠 The model favours Mexico at 44%, with expected goals 1-0, and the likeliest scorer is J. Quiñones (89%).
🤖 AI won
Mexico 44% Draw 41% Honduras 15%
Mexico 0% Draw 0% Honduras 0%
0 votes
Confidence 22% Low confidence
🔒 Tight, low-scoring
Most likely score 0 - 0 33%
Both teams to score 14% No
Over / Under 2.5 Under 90%
Over 2.5 10%Under 2.5 90%
Win Probability
100%
Mexico 100% Draw 0% Honduras 0%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
J. Quiñones
🏠 Mexico
89%
C. Montes
🏠 Mexico
89%
J. Vásquez
🏠 Mexico
80%
E. Álvarez
🏠 Mexico
80%
B. Gutiérrez
🏠 Mexico
80%
É. Sánchez
🏠 Mexico
80%
Team comparison API-Football
Mexico Honduras
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
59%
Team strength
60%
H2H
59%Strength41%
58%Attacking strength42%
80%Defensive strength20%
91%Poisson distribution9%
60%Head-to-head40%
71%Expected goals29%
41%
Team strength
40%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Winner : Mexico
Head-to-head Last 9
6Mexico win
1Draw
2Honduras win
2024/11/20 Mexico 4 : 0 Honduras
2024/11/16 Honduras 2 : 0 Mexico
2023/11/22 Mexico 2 : 0 Honduras
2023/11/18 Honduras 2 : 0 Mexico
2023/06/26 Mexico 4 : 0 Honduras
2022/03/27 Honduras 0 : 1 Mexico
2021/10/10 Mexico 3 : 0 Honduras
2021/07/25 Mexico 3 : 0 Honduras
2021/06/12 Mexico 0 : 0 Honduras
Key events
🟨Guillermo Ochoa
Yellow Card
-5'
🟨Luis Crisanto
Yellow Card
24'
🟨Anthony Lozano
Yellow Card
36'
🟨Mateo Chávez
Yellow Card
47'
⚽R. JiménezAssists G. Mora
goals
50'
📺Edson Álvarez
Goal cancelled
58'
🔄C. Huerta⟵M. Chávez
Substitution
71'
🔄J. Orozco⟵R. Alvarado
Substitution
71'
🔄Y. Arboleda⟵A. Lozano
Substitution
71'
🔄L. Palma⟵R. Quioto
Substitution
71'
🟨Yustin Arboleda
Yellow Card
72'
🟨Kervin Arriaga
Yellow Card
76'
🔄S. Giménez⟵G. Mora
Substitution
77'
🟨Jesús Orozco
Yellow Card
83'
🔄C. Pineda⟵J. Álvarez
Substitution
84'
🟨Julián Araujo
Yellow Card
89'
🔄E. Rodríguez⟵D. Flores
Substitution
89'
🟨Erik Lira
Yellow Card
90+6'
🔄É. Lira⟵M. Ruíz
Substitution
90'
🔄O. Pineda⟵R. Jiménez
Substitution
90'
Lineup
1
L. Malagón 6.9
26
▾
M. Chávez 6.7
5
J. Vásquez 7
3
C. Montes 7.5
22
J. Araujo 7.2
14
▾
M. Ruíz 6.9
4
Edson Álvarez 7
7
▾
G. Mora 7.7
10
A. Vega 7.3
9
⚽ ▾
R. Jiménez 7
25
▾
R. Alvarado 6.6
1
E. Menjívar 6.6
8
J. Rosales 7.2
3
J. Martínez 6.7
2
D. Maldonado 7.7
26
L. Santamaría 6.3
12
▾
R. Quioto 6.3
20
▾
D. Flores 6.6
5
K. Arriaga 6.3
18
D. Ramírez 6.7
9
▾
A. Lozano 6.6
23
▾
J. Álvarez 7
Mexico 4-3-3
Substitutes
71′ ▲21 6.7 C. Huerta ▾ M. Chávez 71′ ▲19 6.9 J. Orozco ▾ R. Alvarado 77′ ▲11 6.3 S. Giménez ▾ G. Mora 90′ ▲6 6.3 É. Lira ▾ M. Ruíz 90′ ▲17 6.9 O. Pineda ▾ R. Jiménez
Coaching staff
Javier Aguirre Onaindía Manager
Bench
2 J. Sánchez DEF 13 G. Ochoa GK 15 I. Reyes DEF 18 Á. Sepúlveda FWD 20 Efraín Álvarez FWD 12 R. Rangel GK 8 C. Rodríguez MID
Honduras 4-4-2
Substitutes
71′ ▲21 6.3 Y. Arboleda ▾ A. Lozano 71′ ▲17 6.7 L. Palma ▾ R. Quioto 84′ ▲19 6.7 C. Pineda ▾ J. Álvarez 89′ ▲16 6.5 E. Rodríguez ▾ D. Flores
Coaching staff
Reinaldo Rueda Rivera Manager
Bench
4 L. Vega DEF 10 A. López MID 7 J. Pinto MID 24 R. García DEF 15 G. Montes DEF 25 M. Licona GK 14 A. Vega FWD 22 L. López GK
Player rating API-Football
Mexico
7
Gilberto Mora
MID · 77′ · 🅰️1
7.7
3
César Montes
DEF · 90′
7.5
10
Alexis Vega
FWD · 90′
7.3
22
Julián Araujo
DEF · 90′ · 🟨
7.2
5
Johan Vásquez
DEF · 90′
7
4
Edson Álvarez C
MID · 90′
7
9
Raúl Jiménez
FWD · 89′ · ⚽1
7
1
Luis Malagón
GK · 90′
6.9
14
Marcel Ruíz
MID · 89′
6.9
19
Jesús Orozco
DEF · 19′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.9
17
Orbelín Pineda
MID · 9′ · Substitute
6.9
26
Mateo Chávez
DEF · 71′ · 🟨
6.7
21
César Huerta
FWD · 19′ · Substitute
6.7
25
Roberto Alvarado
FWD · 71′
6.6
11
Santiago Giménez
FWD · 13′ · Substitute
6.3
6
Erik Lira
MID · 8′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.3
12
Raúl Rangel
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
13
Guillermo Ochoa
GK · 0′ · 🟨 · Substitute
—
15
Israel Reyes
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
2
Jorge Sánchez
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
20
Efrain Alvarez
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
8
Carlos Rodríguez
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
18
Ángel Sepúlveda
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
Honduras
2
Denil Maldonado C
DEF · 90′
7.7
8
Joseph Rosales
DEF · 90′
7.2
23
Jorge Álvarez
FWD · 84′
7
3
Julián Jose Martinez
DEF · 90′
6.7
18
Dixon Ramírez
MID · 90′
6.7
17
Luis Palma
FWD · 19′ · Substitute
6.7
19
Carlos Pineda
MID · 16′ · Substitute
6.7
1
Edrick Menjívar
GK · 90′
6.6
20
Deybi Flores
MID · 89′
6.6
9
Anthony Lozano
FWD · 71′ · 🟨
6.6
16
Edwin Rodríguez
MID · 11′ · Substitute
6.5
26
Luis Crisanto
DEF · 90′ · 🟨
6.3
5
Kervin Arriaga
MID · 90′ · 🟨
6.3
12
Romell Quioto
MID · 71′
6.3
21
Yustin Arboleda
FWD · 19′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.3
22
Luis López
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
25
Marlon Licona
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
15
Getsel Montes
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
4
Luis Vega
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
10
Alexander López
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
14
Alexy Vega
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
7
José Mario Pinto
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
24
Raul Garcia
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
Mexico × Honduras
40% Shot Accuracy
84% Pass Accuracy
56% Possession
Mexico Honduras
10Shots6
4Shots on Target1
4Shots off Target3
8Shots Inside Box1
2Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots2
443Passes338
373Accurate Passes252
2Corners5
1Offsides3
1Goalkeeper saves2
17Tackles11
8Interceptions5
2Blocks (defensive)3
49Duels Won50
11Fouls12
5Yellow Cards4
—Red Cards—
17% Shot Accuracy
75% Pass Accuracy
44% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Mexico
Gilberto Mora
2
Julián Araujo
1
Mateo Chávez
1
Edson Álvarez
1
Roberto Alvarado
1
Alexis Vega
1
Honduras
Kervin Arriaga
1
Romell Quioto
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
Group A
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Mexico 3210 +37
2 Costa Rica 3210 +27
3 Dominican Republic 3012 −21
4 Suriname 3012 −31
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