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Finished · Copa Sudamericana
📝 Match Recap AI

# Tigre Falls to Nacional in Major Upset

Club Nacional secured a stunning victory over Tigre with a 2-1 win in the Copa Sudamericana, defying the model's strong 68 percent prediction in favor of the hosts. Nacional struck with clinical efficiency in the first half, with Mateo Gomez opening the scoring in the eleventh minute before Mateo Silvera doubled the lead just twenty minutes later. Although Sebastian Lopez pulled one back for Tigre late in the match, the Argentine side could not find the equalizer despite their dominance throughout much of the contest.

The result proved to be a major surprise given the pre-match expectations, with Nacional's defensive organization and clinical finishing making the difference. Gonzalo Martínez was Tigre's standout performer with a rating of 7.7, yet his efforts proved insufficient to salvage the match for his team. Club Nacional's midfield controlled proceedings effectively, with Tomas Veron Lupi and Emiliano Ancheta both earning strong ratings of 7.3 and 7.2 respectively as the visitors earned a deserved passage through the competition.

Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/28 · 22:00
Round
Round of 32
Stadium
Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna — Buenos Aires
Referee
Flavio Rodrigues De Souza
AI predictionExpected goals 2.2 : 0.8
🧠 The model favours Tigre at 68%, with expected goals 2-1, and the likeliest scorer is D. Romero (57%).
Tigre 68% Draw 19% Club Nacional 13%
Tigre 0% Draw 0% Club Nacional 0%
0 votes
Confidence 88% High confidence
🛡️ Leaky visitors away Tigre
Most likely score 2 - 0 12%
Both teams to score 49% No
Over / Under 2.5 Over 58%
Over 2.5 58%Under 2.5 42%
Win Probability
100%
Tigre 0% Draw 0% Club Nacional 100%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
D. Romero
🏠 Tigre
57%
I. Russo
🏠 Tigre
31%
Team comparison API-Football
Tigre Club Nacional
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
100%
Team strength
100%
H2H
100%Strength0%
100%Attacking strength0%
50%Defensive strength50%
0%Poisson distribution0%
100%Head-to-head0%
100%Expected goals0%
0%
Team strength
0%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Winner : Tigre
Head-to-head Last 1
1Tigre win
0Draw
0Club Nacional win
2026/07/21 Club Nacional 0 : 3 Tigre
Key events
M. Gomez
goals
11'
M. SilveraAssists T. Veron
goals
31'
🟨L. Rodriguez
Yellow Card
51'
🟨A. dos Santos
Yellow Card
56'
🔄M. GarayS. Gonzalez
Substitution
58'
🔄N. LodeiroA. dos Santos
Substitution
59'
📺S. Lopez
Goal Disallowed - offside
65'
🟨I. Russo
Yellow Card
71'
🔄R. MartinezT. Veron
Substitution
73'
🟨E. Ancheta
Yellow Card
73'
🔄E. CabreraP. Martinez
Substitution
81'
🔄A. OviedoJ. Saralegui
Substitution
81'
S. LopezAssists N. Banegas
goals
82'
🟨S. Lopez
Yellow Card
83'
🔄S. SilvaL. Rodriguez
Substitution
83'
🔄P. NunezM. Silvera
Substitution
83'
🟨M. Gomez
Yellow Card
89'
🔄F. AlvarezI. Russo
Substitution
90'
🔄T. SerragoS. Lopez
Substitution
90'
🟨T. Serrago
Yellow Card
90'
Lineup
12
Felipe Zenobio 5.9
3
Nahuel Banegas 7
20
Alan Barrionuevo 6.2
2
Joaquín Laso 6.2
4
Valentín Moreno 6.5
22
Santiago López 6.9
27
Santiago González 6.9
30
Jalil Elias 6.6
10
Jabes Saralegui 6.2
29
Ignacio Russo 6.2
28
Gonzalo Martínez 7.7
22
Alexis Martín Arias 6.7
21
Camilo Cándido 6.5
5
Francisco Calvo 6.9
2
Agustín Rogel 7
13
Emiliano Ancheta 7.2
23
Lucas Rodríguez 7
6
Luciano Boggio 6.9
10
Agustín Dos Santos 6.3
27
Tomas Veron Lupi 7.3
11
Maximiliano Silvera 7.2
9
Maximiliano Gómez 6.9
Player rating API-Football
Tigre
28
Gonzalo Martínez
FWD · 81′
7.7
3
Nahuel Banegas
DEF · 96′ · 🅰️1
7
27
Santiago González
MID · 58′
6.9
22
Santiago López
MID · 90′ · ⚽1 · 🟨
6.9
33
Elías Cabrera
MID · 15′ · Substitute
6.7
19
Alfio Oviedo
FWD · 15′ · Substitute
6.7
30
Jalil Elias
MID · 96′
6.6
4
Valentín Moreno
DEF · 96′
6.5
8
Martín Garay
MID · 38′ · Substitute
6.3
2
Joaquín Laso C
DEF · 96′
6.2
20
Alan Barrionuevo
DEF · 96′
6.2
10
Jabes Saralegui
MID · 81′
6.2
29
Ignacio Russo
FWD · 90′ · 🟨
6.2
12
Felipe Zenobio
GK · 96′
5.9
24
Federico Álvarez
DEF · 6′ · Substitute
11
Tiago Serrago
MID · 6′ · 🟨 · Substitute
13
Maximo Leguizamon
GK · 0′ · Substitute
23
Gonzalo Requena
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
40
Luciano Minniti
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
32
Juan Villalba
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
47
Sebastian Lezcano
MID · 0′ · Substitute
50
Ignacio Peluffo
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
77
Marco Rivas
MID · 0′ · Substitute
Club Nacional
27
Tomas Veron Lupi
MID · 73′ · 🅰️1
7.3
13
Emiliano Ancheta
DEF · 96′ · 🟨
7.2
11
Maximiliano Silvera
FWD · 83′ · ⚽1
7.2
2
Agustín Rogel
DEF · 96′
7
23
Lucas Rodríguez
MID · 83′ · 🟨
7
5
Francisco Calvo
DEF · 96′
6.9
6
Luciano Boggio
MID · 96′
6.9
9
Maximiliano Gómez C
FWD · 96′ · ⚽1 · 🟨
6.9
14
Nicolás Lodeiro
MID · 37′ · Substitute
6.9
22
Alexis Martín Arias
GK · 96′
6.7
31
Rodrigo Martínez
MID · 23′ · Substitute
6.7
18
Pável Núñez
FWD · 13′ · Substitute
6.7
21
Camilo Cándido
DEF · 96′
6.5
8
Santiago Silva
MID · 13′ · Substitute
6.5
10
Agustín Dos Santos
MID · 59′ · 🟨
6.3
1
Luis Mejía
GK · 0′ · Substitute
7
Nicolás Rodríguez
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
15
Paolo Calione
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
32
Tomás Viera
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
24
Benjamín Núñez
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
39
Luciano Gonzalez
MID · 0′ · Substitute
56
Juan García
MID · 0′ · Substitute
29
Tiziano Correa
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
33% Shot Accuracy
61% Pass Accuracy
37% Possession
Tigre Club Nacional
0.93Expected Goals (xG)0.78
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
9Shots7
3Shots on Target3
5Shots off Target1
6Shots Inside Box4
3Shots Outside Box3
1Blocked Shots3
278Passes461
170Accurate Passes348
2Corners6
1Offsides1
1Goalkeeper saves2
24Tackles21
10Interceptions12
3Blocks (defensive)1
59Duels Won62
15Fouls17
3Yellow Cards4
Red Cards
43% Shot Accuracy
75% Pass Accuracy
63% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Tigre
Gonzalo Martínez
3
Nahuel Banegas
1
Club Nacional
Tomas Veron Lupi
2
Luciano Boggio
1
Maximiliano Silvera
1
Rodrigo Martínez
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
Group A
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Macara 6240 +310
2 Tigre 6231 +39
3 America de Cali 6231 +19
4 Alianza Atletico 6024 −72
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