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Finished · Chilean Primera División
Concepción
2 : 0
O'Higgins
📝 Match Recap AI

# Concepción Stuns O'Higgins in Narrow Upset Victory

Concepción secured a surprising 2-0 victory over O'Higgins in a Chilean league clash that defied preseason expectations. The hosts entered as underdogs at 37 percent to win compared to their opponents' 40 percent, yet dominated the match through decisive finishing. Juan Larrivey opened the scoring at the stroke of halftime, before Mario Sandoval doubled the lead in the 75th minute to seal the result, though Larrivey's missed penalty late on prevented an even more commanding display.

The performance was built on strong individual contributions across Concepción's lineup, with Fausto Grillo, Sandoval, and Ethan Espinoza all earning identical ratings of 7.7 in recognition of their commanding displays. O'Higgins' challenge was compounded when Nicolas Garrido received a red card in the 82nd minute, effectively ending their hopes of a comeback in the final stages. The result represents a significant upset given the preseason odds favored O'Higgins, showcasing Concepción's ability to perform under pressure against a competitive opponent.

Estadio Ester Roa
🏟️ Estadio Ester Roa Rancagua
Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/27 · 00:30
Round
Round 16
Stadium
Estadio Ester Roa — Rancagua
Referee
Mathias Riquelme
AI predictionExpected goals 1.8 : 1.3
🧠 The model favours Concepción at 49%, with expected goals 2-1, and the likeliest scorer is J. Larrivey (43%).
🤖 AI won
Concepción 49% Draw 23% O'Higgins 28%
Concepción 0% Draw 0% O'Higgins 0%
0 votes
Confidence 69% High confidence
🛡️ Leaky visitors away Concepción 📉 Poor form O'Higgins
Most likely score 1 - 1 11%
Both teams to score 61% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Over 60%
Over 2.5 60%Under 2.5 40%
Win Probability
100%
Concepción 100% Draw 0% O'Higgins 0%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
J. Larrivey
🏠 Concepción
43%
F. González
✈️ O'Higgins
29%
Team comparison API-Football
Concepción O'Higgins
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
69%
Team strength
0%
H2H
69%Strength31%
64%Attacking strength36%
50%Defensive strength50%
40%Poisson distribution60%
0%Head-to-head100%
33%Expected goals67%
31%
Team strength
100%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Double chance : draw or O'Higgins
Head-to-head Last 1
0Concepción win
0Draw
1O'Higgins win
2026/02/02 O'Higgins 2 : 1 Concepción
Key events
📺B. Yanez
Goal Disallowed - offside
14'
🟨N. Garrido
Yellow Card
34'
⚽J. Larrivey
Goal (Penalty)
45'
🟨A. Caceres
Yellow Card
49'
🟨M. Sandoval
Yellow Card
51'
🔄Y. Rodriguez⟵M. Davila Carvajal
Substitution
57'
🔄E. Moreira⟵G. Pinto
Substitution
57'
🔄J. Montecinos⟵M. Cavalleri
Substitution
57'
🔄B. Leiva⟵T. Aviles
Substitution
69'
🔄J. Poblete⟵L. Diaz
Substitution
69'
🟨N. Rodriguez
Yellow Card
71'
🟨J. Poblete
Yellow Card
72'
🔄F. Romero⟵J. Henriquez
Substitution
73'
⚽M. Sandoval
goals
75'
🔄J. Tapia⟵B. Yanez
Substitution
78'
🔄J. Munoz⟵M. Maturana
Substitution
78'
🟨N. Garrido
Yellow Card
82'
🟥N. Garrido
Red Card
82'
❌J. LarriveyAssists J. Larrivey
goals
84'
📺F. Romero
Goal Disallowed - video review
84'
🔄D. Acosta⟵J. Larrivey
Substitution
87'
🔄C. Riquelme⟵E. Espinoza
Substitution
87'
Lineup
25
Nicolás Araya 6.6
29
Dilan Varas 7
37
Fausto Grillo 7.7
21
Norman Rodríguez 7.5
4
Ariel Cáceres 7
22
▾
Misael Dávila 6.3
16
⚽
Mario Sandoval 7.7
30
Ethan Espinoza 7.7
20
▾
Jorge Henríquez 6.6
24
▾
Matías Cavalleri 6.9
32
⚽ ▾
Joaquín Larrivey 6.2
1
Jorge Peña 7.7
20
▾
Leandro Díaz 6.5
27
José Movillo 6.2
21
Nicolás Garrido 5.5
2
Cristian Morales 6.9
5
▾
Gabriel Pinto 6.7
17
▾
Tomás Avilés 6.6
26
Rodrigo Godoy 6.5
14
▾
Martín Maturana 6.5
29
▾
Bastián Yáñez 6.6
32
Thiago Vecino 5.2
Concepción 4-2-3-1
Substitutes
57′ ▲18 6.6 Y. Rodriguez ▾ M. Davila Carvajal 57′ ▲15 7.2 J. Montecinos ▾ M. Cavalleri 73′ ▲7 7 F. Romero ▾ J. Henriquez 87′ ▲27 6.3 D. Acosta ▾ J. Larrivey 87′ ▲23 6.9 C. Riquelme ▾ E. Espinoza
Coaching staff
Patricio Almendra Manager
Bench
12 Nery Veloso GK 19 Aldrix Jara FWD 8 Fernando Martinez MID 9 Carlos Escobar FWD
O'Higgins 4-2-3-1
Substitutes
57′ ▲18 6.3 E. Moreira ▾ G. Pinto 69′ ▲ B. Leiva ▾ T. Aviles 69′ 👤 ▲ J. Poblete ▾ L. Diaz 78′ ▲30 6.5 J. Tapia ▾ B. Yanez 78′ ▲13 6.9 J. Munoz ▾ M. Maturana
Coaching staff
Lucas Bovaglio Manager
Bench
34 Benjamin Pérez MID 31 Omar Carabalí GK 3 Felipe Faúndez DEF 15 Benjamín Rojas DEF 8 Felipe Ogaz MID
Player rating API-Football
Concepción
37
Fausto Grillo
DEF · 90′
7.7
16
Mario Sandoval
MID · 90′ · ⚽1 · 🟨
7.7
30
Ethan Espinoza
MID · 87′
7.7
21
Norman Rodríguez
DEF · 90′ · 🟨
7.5
15
Joaquín Montecinos
FWD · 33′ · Substitute
7.2
4
Ariel Cáceres
DEF · 90′ · 🟨
7
29
Dilan Varas
DEF · 90′
7
7
Fernando Romero
FWD · 17′ · Substitute
7
24
Matías Cavalleri
MID · 57′
6.9
23
Cristian Riquelme
DEF · 10′ · Substitute
6.9
25
Nicolás Araya
GK · 90′
6.6
20
Jorge Henríquez
MID · 73′
6.6
18
Yonathan Rodríguez
MID · 33′ · Substitute
6.6
22
Misael Dávila
MID · 57′
6.3
27
Diego Acosta
FWD · 10′ · Substitute
6.3
32
Joaquín Larrivey C
FWD · 87′ · ⚽1
6.2
12
Nery Veloso
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
19
Aldrix Jara
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
8
Fernando Martinez
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
9
Carlos Escobar
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
O'Higgins
1
Jorge Peña
GK · 90′
7.7
2
Cristian Morales
DEF · 90′
6.9
13
Joaquín Muñoz
MID · 12′ · Substitute
6.9
5
Gabriel Pinto
MID · 57′
6.7
38
Juan Poblete
DEF · 21′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.7
17
Tomás Avilés
MID · 69′
6.6
29
Bastián Yáñez
MID · 78′
6.6
34
Benjamin Pérez
MID · 21′ · Substitute
6.6
20
Leandro Díaz
DEF · 69′
6.5
14
Martín Maturana
MID · 78′
6.5
26
Rodrigo Godoy
MID · 90′
6.5
30
Joaquín Tapia
FWD · 12′ · Substitute
6.5
18
Esteban Moreira
FWD · 33′ · Substitute
6.3
27
José Movillo
DEF · 90′
6.2
21
Nicolás Garrido C
DEF · 82′ · 🟨 🟥
5.5
32
Thiago Vecino
FWD · 90′
5.2
31
Omar Carabalí
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
3
Felipe Faúndez
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
15
Benjamín Rojas
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
8
Felipe Ogaz
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
Concepción × O'Higgins
45% Shot Accuracy
73% Pass Accuracy
42% Possession
Concepción O'Higgins
20Shots7
9Shots on Target2
6Shots off Target5
9Shots Inside Box4
11Shots Outside Box3
5Blocked Shots1
320Passes457
234Accurate Passes371
4Corners4
0Offsides1
1Goalkeeper saves7
12Tackles9
5Interceptions12
0Blocks (defensive)5
46Duels Won39
11Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
29% Shot Accuracy
81% Pass Accuracy
58% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Concepción
Dilan Varas
3
Jorge Henríquez
3
Fernando Romero
2
Ariel Cáceres
1
Mario Sandoval
1
Matías Cavalleri
1
O'Higgins
Bastián Yáñez
3
Cristian Morales
1
Rodrigo Godoy
1
Thiago Vecino
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Colo Colo 161303 +1939
2 U. Catolica 16835 +1527
3 Universidad de Chile 16763 +827
4 Nublense 16673 +125
5 Coquimbo Unido 15735 +424
6 Huachipato 16736 +124
7 Palestino 16736 +024
8 Deportes Limache 16637 +521
9 Everton de Vina 16556 +020
10 O'Higgins 16628 −520
11 D. La Serena 16475 −419
12 Union La Calera 16547 −519
13 Universidad de Concepcion 15546 −1319
14 Concepción 16529 −717
15 A. Italiano 16448 −416
16 Cobresal 163211 −1511
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