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Finished · Argentine Primera División
📝 Match Recap AI

# Estudiantes Stun Tigre with Late Winner

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto pulled off a significant upset against Tigre, securing a narrow one-nil victory in Argentine league play. Sebastian Ojeda broke the deadlock in the seventieth minute to settle what had been a closely contested encounter. The result was a surprise given the pre-match expectations, which heavily favored Tigre with a fifty-five percent win probability, while Estudiantes were given just a ten percent chance of victory.

Lucas Bruera's outstanding display in goal proved decisive for the home side, earning a rating of eight point seven and making critical saves when needed. Tigre's Alan Barrionuevo put in a solid performance with an eight point two rating despite his team's failure to find the net, while Estudiantes' Agustin Quiroga contributed a solid seven point seven to the winning effort. The victory represents a deserved three points for Estudiantes, who executed their chances better on the day and benefited from Bruera's commanding presence between the posts.

Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/25 · 17:45
Round
Clausura - 1
Stadium
Antonio Candini — Rio Cuarto
Referee
Brian Ferreyra
AI predictionExpected goals 0.3 : 1.1
🧠 The model favours Tigre at 55%, with expected goals 0-1, and the likeliest scorer is D. Romero (35%).
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 10% Draw 35% Tigre 55%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0% Draw 0% Tigre 0%
0 votes
Confidence 74% High confidence
📉 Poor form Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 🤝 H2H advantage Tigre 🔒 Tight, low-scoring
Most likely score 0 - 1 27%
Both teams to score 17% No
Over / Under 2.5 Under 83%
Over 2.5 17%Under 2.5 83%
Win Probability
100%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 100% Draw 0% Tigre 0%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
D. Romero
✈️ Tigre
35%
I. Russo
✈️ Tigre
17%
Team comparison API-Football
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Tigre
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
25%
Team strength
13%
H2H
25%Strength75%
50%Attacking strength50%
42%Defensive strength58%
23%Poisson distribution77%
13%Head-to-head88%
0%Expected goals100%
75%
Team strength
88%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Combo Double chance : draw or Tigre and -3.5 goals
Head-to-head Last 3
0Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win
1Draw
2Tigre win
2026/01/26 Tigre 2 : 0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2021/08/17 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0 : 0 Tigre
2021/04/03 Tigre 1 : 0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Key events
🟨J. Villalba
Yellow Card
9'
🔄J. EliasS. Gonzalez
Substitution
46'
🔄J. GarroM. Valiente
Substitution
58'
🔄J. FerreiraY. Moreno
Substitution
58'
🟨T. Serrago
Yellow Card
61'
🔄P. MartinezS. Medina
Substitution
62'
🔄I. RussoA. Oviedo
Substitution
62'
🔄F. RodriguezS. Rosane
Substitution
68'
🔄N. TalponeF. Cobos
Substitution
68'
S. OjedaAssists M. Valenti
goals
70'
🟨J. Ferreira
Yellow Card
77'
🔄I. PeluffoT. Serrago
Substitution
77'
🔄S. LopezM. Garay
Substitution
77'
🟨M. Valenti
Yellow Card
88'
🔄F. Lo CelsoT. Gonzalez
Substitution
90+4'
Lineup
1
Lucas Bruera 8.7
29
Agustin Quiroga 7.7
30
Sergio Ojeda 7.2
31
Matias Valenti 6.9
28
Facundo Cobos 7.5
8
Siro Rosane 6.3
13
Francisco Romero 7.7
14
Gonzalo Gonzalez 6.6
22
Mauro Valiente 6.5
10
Tomas Gonzalez 6.7
16
Yeison Moreno
12
Felipe Zenobio 6.7
24
Federico Álvarez 6.9
32
Juan Villalba 6.3
20
Alan Barrionuevo 8.2
17
Guillermo Soto 6.3
8
Martín Garay 6.9
27
Santiago González 7.2
21
Sebastián Medina 6.3
33
Elías Cabrera 6.7
11
Tiago Serrago 5.3
19
Alfio Oviedo 6.7
Player rating API-Football
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1
Lucas Bruera
GK · 96′
8.7
29
Agustin Quiroga
DEF · 96′
7.7
13
Francisco Romero
MID · 96′
7.7
28
Facundo Cobos
MID · 68′
7.5
30
Sergio Ojeda C
DEF · 96′ · ⚽1
7.2
27
Juan Garro
FWD · 38′ · Substitute
7.2
31
Matias Valenti
DEF · 96′ · 🅰️1 · 🟨
6.9
10
Tomas Gonzalez
FWD · 94′
6.7
23
Fernando Rodríguez
DEF · 28′ · Substitute
6.7
14
Gonzalo Gonzalez
MID · 96′
6.6
22
Mauro Valiente
FWD · 58′
6.5
19
Nicolás Talpone
MID · 28′ · Substitute
6.5
8
Siro Rosane
MID · 68′
6.3
16
Yeison Moreno
FWD · 58′
6.2
9
Javier Ferreira
FWD · 38′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.2
40
Francesco Lo Celso
MID · 2′ · Substitute
43
Agustín Lastra
GK · 0′ · Substitute
45
Raúl Lozano
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
86
Matías Pagliaricci
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
26
Ezequiel Forclaz
MID · 0′ · Substitute
77
Ibrahim Hesar
MID · 0′ · Substitute
15
Lautaro Cepeha
MID · 0′ · Substitute
32
Mateo Bajamich
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
Tigre
20
Alan Barrionuevo
DEF · 96′
8.2
28
Gonzalo Martínez
MID · 34′ · Substitute
7.6
27
Santiago González
MID · 45′
7.2
24
Federico Álvarez
DEF · 96′
6.9
8
Martín Garay
MID · 77′
6.9
30
Jalil Elias
MID · 51′ · Substitute
6.9
12
Felipe Zenobio C
GK · 96′
6.7
33
Elías Cabrera
MID · 96′
6.7
19
Alfio Oviedo
FWD · 62′
6.7
29
Ignacio Russo
FWD · 34′ · Substitute
6.5
22
Santiago López
FWD · 19′ · Substitute
6.5
17
Guillermo Soto
DEF · 96′
6.3
32
Juan Villalba
DEF · 96′ · 🟨
6.3
21
Sebastián Medina
MID · 62′
6.3
50
Ignacio Peluffo
FWD · 19′ · Substitute
6.3
11
Tiago Serrago
MID · 77′ · 🟨
5.3
1
Luka Fuster
GK · 0′ · Substitute
4
Valentín Moreno
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
2
Joaquín Laso
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
3
Nahuel Banegas
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
40
Luciano Minniti
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
23
Gonzalo Requena
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
47
Sebastian Lezcano
MID · 0′ · Substitute
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
25% Shot Accuracy
73% Pass Accuracy
39% Possession
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Tigre
1.09Expected Goals (xG)1.16
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
8Shots17
2Shots on Target4
4Shots off Target6
6Shots Inside Box8
2Shots Outside Box9
2Blocked Shots7
315Passes487
231Accurate Passes398
4Corners5
2Offsides0
4Goalkeeper saves1
12Tackles17
16Interceptions5
7Blocks (defensive)2
49Duels Won57
17Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
Red Cards
24% Shot Accuracy
82% Pass Accuracy
61% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Matias Valenti
1
Francisco Romero
1
Siro Rosane
1
Facundo Cobos
1
Mauro Valiente
1
Yeison Moreno
1
Tigre
Alan Barrionuevo
2
Guillermo Soto
1
Juan Villalba
1
Santiago González
1
Elías Cabrera
1
Jalil Elias
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
Apertura - Group B
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Independ. Rivadavia 161042 +1434
2 River Plate 16925 +1029
3 Argentinos JRS 16853 +429
4 Rosario Central 16844 +428
5 Belgrano Cordoba 16754 +426
6 Gimnasia L.P. 16826 +026
7 Huracan 16574 +422
8 Racing Club 16565 +221
9 Barracas Central 16565 +021
10 Tigre 16484 +320
11 Sarmiento Junin 16619 −719
12 Banfield 16538 −218
13 Atletico Tucuman 16358 −514
14 Aldosivi 16088 −138
15 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 161213 −195
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