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Finished · Argentine Primera División
📝 Match Recap AI

# Lanus Edges Past San Lorenzo in Argentine League Upset

Lanus claimed a surprising 1-0 victory over San Lorenzo in an Argentine league match that defied the pre-match prediction heavily favoring a draw. The decisive moment came in the 65th minute when Yoshan Valois broke the deadlock with a well-taken goal, proving to be the difference in a closely contested encounter. Despite being given only a 25 percent chance of winning before kickoff, Lanus executed their game plan effectively and held firm defensively to secure the three points.

San Lorenzo's efforts were ultimately thwarted by resolute defending and wayward finishing, with Orlando Gill earning a team-high rating of 10 despite his side's failure to find the back of the net. For the winners, Dylan Aquino delivered a commanding performance with a rating of 8.3, anchoring Lanus's defensive stability throughout the match. The result represented a genuine upset given the pre-match model's strong expectation of a stalemate, showcasing how Lanus's clinical finishing and defensive organization proved decisive where San Lorenzo could not capitalize on their opportunities.

Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/26 · 00:30
Round
Clausura - 1
Stadium
Estadio Ciudad de Lanus — Buenos Aires
Referee
Leandro Rey Hilfer
AI predictionExpected goals 0.4 : 0.3
🧠 The model favours a draw at 58%, with expected goals 0-0, and the likeliest scorer is D. Aquino (49%).
Lanus 25% Draw 58% San Lorenzo 17%
Lanus 0% Draw 0% San Lorenzo 0%
0 votes
Confidence 87% High confidence
🤝 H2H advantage Lanus 🔒 Tight, low-scoring
Most likely score 0 - 0 50%
Both teams to score 9% No
Over / Under 2.5 Under 97%
Over 2.5 3%Under 2.5 97%
Win Probability
100%
Lanus 100% Draw 0% San Lorenzo 0%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
D. Aquino
🏠 Lanus
49%
Team comparison API-Football
Lanus San Lorenzo
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
50%
Team strength
85%
H2H
50%Strength50%
20%Attacking strength80%
63%Defensive strength38%
58%Poisson distribution42%
85%Head-to-head15%
64%Expected goals36%
50%
Team strength
15%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Combo Double chance : Lanus or draw and -3.5 goals
Head-to-head Last 10
6Lanus win
2Draw
2San Lorenzo win
2026/01/23 San Lorenzo 2 : 3 Lanus
2025/10/05 Lanus 2 : 1 San Lorenzo
2025/03/28 San Lorenzo 1 : 1 Lanus
2024/05/20 San Lorenzo 1 : 1 Lanus
2024/01/27 San Lorenzo 0 : 2 Lanus
2023/08/20 Lanus 0 : 1 San Lorenzo
2023/02/05 Lanus 2 : 1 San Lorenzo
2022/09/24 Lanus 2 : 0 San Lorenzo
2021/10/20 San Lorenzo 1 : 3 Lanus
2020/03/08 San Lorenzo 4 : 3 Lanus
Key events
🟨E. Herrera
Yellow Card
19'
🟨R. Carrera
Yellow Card
39'
🟨F. Lorenzon
Yellow Card
45+5'
🔄I. PerruzziG. Alassia
Substitution
46'
🔄M. CardilloM. Insaurralde
Substitution
46'
🔄N. BarriosF. Gulli
Substitution
57'
🔄E. SalvioR. Carrera
Substitution
62'
🔄D. AquinoL. Besozzi
Substitution
63'
Y. ValoisAssists D. Aquino
goals
65'
🔄F. N. WatsonM. Sepulveda
Substitution
70'
🔄A. WlkY. Valois
Substitution
71'
🟨F. Pena Biafore
Yellow Card
71'
🔄M. HernandezR. Auzmendi
Substitution
77'
🔄A. LadstatterE. Herrera
Substitution
77'
🔄A. MedinaF. Pena Biafore
Substitution
82'
🟨A. Medina
Yellow Card
84'
🟨I. Perruzzi
Yellow Card
90+4'
Lineup
26
Nahuel Losada 7.3
6
Sasha Marcich 7
13
José Canale 7.2
35
Ronaldo De Jesus 7.3
4
Gonzalo Perez 7.5
30
Agustín Cardozo 7.3
5
Felipe Peña Biafore 7.5
77
Lucas Besozzi 7.2
23
Ramiro Carrera 7
16
Matías Sepúlveda 6.9
19
Yoshan Valois 7.6
12
Orlando Gill 10
6
Mathias de Ritis 7.3
35
Alejo Cordoba 6.9
42
Franco Lorenzon 6.9
32
Ezequiel Herrera 6.3
10
Facundo Gulli 6.7
8
Manuel Insaurralde 6.9
62
Gonzalo Alassia 6.6
24
Nicolás Tripichio 6.9
9
Alexis Cuello 6.3
29
Rodrigo Auzmendi 6.3
Player rating API-Football
Lanus
25
Dylan Aquino
FWD · 33′ · 🅰️1 · Substitute
8.3
19
Yoshan Valois
FWD · 71′ · ⚽1
7.6
4
Gonzalo Perez
DEF · 96′
7.5
5
Felipe Peña Biafore
MID · 82′ · 🟨
7.5
26
Nahuel Losada
GK · 96′
7.3
35
Ronaldo De Jesus
DEF · 96′
7.3
30
Agustín Cardozo
MID · 96′
7.3
13
José Canale
DEF · 96′
7.2
77
Lucas Besozzi
MID · 63′
7.2
6
Sasha Marcich
DEF · 96′
7
23
Ramiro Carrera C
MID · 62′ · 🟨
7
16
Matías Sepúlveda
MID · 70′
6.9
11
Eduardo Salvio
MID · 34′ · Substitute
6.9
8
Franco Watson
MID · 26′ · Substitute
6.9
17
Agustín Medina
MID · 14′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.5
20
Allan Wlk
FWD · 25′ · Substitute
6.3
1
Franco Petroli
GK · 0′ · Substitute
33
Tomás Guidara
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
24
Carlos Izquierdoz
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
3
Nicolás Morgantini
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
2
Luciano Romero
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
39
Thiago Laplace
MID · 0′ · Substitute
38
Benjamin Acosta
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
San Lorenzo
12
Orlando Gill
GK · 96′
10
6
Mathias de Ritis
DEF · 96′
7.3
42
Franco Lorenzon
DEF · 96′ · 🟨
6.9
35
Alejo Cordoba
DEF · 96′
6.9
24
Nicolás Tripichio C
MID · 96′
6.9
8
Manuel Insaurralde
MID · 45′
6.9
14
Agustin Ladstatter
FWD · 19′ · Substitute
6.9
10
Facundo Gulli
MID · 57′
6.7
5
Ignacio Perruzzi
MID · 51′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.7
15
Mauricio Cardillo
MID · 51′ · Substitute
6.7
62
Gonzalo Alassia
MID · 45′
6.6
28
Nahuel Barrios
MID · 39′ · Substitute
6.5
44
Matías Hernández
FWD · 19′ · Substitute
6.5
32
Ezequiel Herrera
DEF · 77′ · 🟨
6.3
29
Rodrigo Auzmendi
FWD · 77′
6.3
9
Alexis Cuello
FWD · 96′
6.3
20
Facundo Altamirano
GK · 0′ · Substitute
16
Guzmán Corujo
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
3
Teo Rodríguez Pagano
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
17
Gregorio Rodriguez
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
13
Juan Rattalino
MID · 0′ · Substitute
19
Facundo Bruera
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
41% Shot Accuracy
81% Pass Accuracy
50% Possession
Lanus San Lorenzo
1.53Expected Goals (xG)0.83
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
22Shots12
9Shots on Target5
8Shots off Target7
16Shots Inside Box7
6Shots Outside Box5
5Blocked Shots0
442Passes450
360Accurate Passes349
8Corners2
2Offsides0
5Goalkeeper saves9
21Tackles15
10Interceptions5
0Blocks (defensive)3
56Duels Won50
15Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
Red Cards
42% Shot Accuracy
78% Pass Accuracy
50% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Lanus
Matías Sepúlveda
8
Dylan Aquino
3
Agustín Cardozo
2
Yoshan Valois
2
Gonzalo Perez
1
Felipe Peña Biafore
1
San Lorenzo
Mathias de Ritis
2
Franco Lorenzon
1
Nicolás Tripichio
1
Facundo Gulli
1
Rodrigo Auzmendi
1
Alexis Cuello
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
Apertura - Group A
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Estudiantes L.P. 16943 +1231
2 Boca Juniors 16862 +1330
3 Velez Sarsfield 16772 +628
4 Talleres Cordoba 16754 +426
5 Independiente 16664 +424
6 Lanus 16664 +324
7 San Lorenzo 16574 +022
8 Union Santa Fe 16565 +421
9 Instituto Cordoba 16637 +021
10 Defensa Y Justicia 16475 −319
11 Gimnasia M. 16547 −819
12 Platense 16376 −516
13 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16448 −1016
14 Newells Old Boys 16367 −1215
15 Deportivo Riestra 16187 −711
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