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Finished · Argentine Primera División
Estudiantes L.P.
0 : 2
Independiente
📝 Match Recap AI

# Independiente Stuns Estudiantes with Second-Half Goals

Independiente pulled off a significant upset at Estudiantes L.P., claiming a 2-0 victory despite entering the match as clear underdogs with only a 22 percent win probability. The visiting side controlled the decisive moments, with goals from Gerónimo Avalos in the 76th minute and Santiago Montiel in the 82nd minute sealing the result. Estudiantes had a chance to change the course of the match when Gonzalo Carrillo was awarded a penalty in the 81st minute, but he failed to convert, a miss that ultimately proved costly as Independiente's defense held firm.

Rodrigo Rey proved instrumental in securing Independiente's upset victory, delivering an outstanding performance in goal with an 8.5 rating that highlighted his crucial saves when it mattered most. Santiago Montiel also impressed with an 8.2 rating, capping off his strong showing with the second goal that sealed the three points. For Estudiantes, Tomás Palacios earned an 8.0 rating in a losing effort, but his individual quality was not enough to overcome his team's failure to capitalize on opportunities and missed penalty.

Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/26 · 20:15
Round
Clausura - 1
Stadium
Estadio Ciudad de La Plata — La Plata
Referee
Pablo Dovalo
AI predictionExpected goals 1.3 : 0.8
🧠 The model favours Estudiantes L.P. at 50%, with expected goals 1-1, and the likeliest scorer is T. Palacios (48%).
Estudiantes L.P. 50% Draw 29% Independiente 21%
Estudiantes L.P. 0% Draw 0% Independiente 0%
0 votes
Confidence 70% High confidence
Most likely score 1 - 0 16%
Both teams to score 40% No
Over / Under 2.5 Under 65%
Over 2.5 35%Under 2.5 65%
Win Probability
100%
Estudiantes L.P. 0% Draw 0% Independiente 100%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
T. Palacios
🏠 Estudiantes L.P.
48%
G. Ávalos
✈️ Independiente
31%
M. Abaldo
✈️ Independiente
15%
Team comparison API-Football
Estudiantes L.P. Independiente
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
59%
Team strength
38%
H2H
59%Strength41%
42%Attacking strength58%
80%Defensive strength20%
70%Poisson distribution30%
38%Head-to-head62%
42%Expected goals58%
41%
Team strength
62%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Double chance : Estudiantes L.P. or draw
Head-to-head Last 9
3Estudiantes L.P. win
3Draw
3Independiente win
2026/01/23 Independiente 1 : 1 Estudiantes L.P.
2024/08/11 Estudiantes L.P. 0 : 2 Independiente
2023/09/09 Independiente 1 : 1 Estudiantes L.P.
2023/04/09 Independiente 1 : 2 Estudiantes L.P.
2022/06/21 Independiente 2 : 1 Estudiantes L.P.
2022/02/13 Estudiantes L.P. 2 : 1 Independiente
2021/07/25 Estudiantes L.P. 0 : 1 Independiente
2021/05/15 Estudiantes L.P. 0 : 0 Independiente
2019/08/19 Estudiantes L.P. 3 : 0 Independiente
Key events
🟨T. Palacios
Yellow Card
40'
🟨L. Godoy
Yellow Card
45+1'
🔄M. Meza⟵M. Abaldo
Substitution
63'
🔄Perez Fabricio⟵A. Castro
Substitution
72'
🔄B. Aguirre⟵J. Burgos
Substitution
72'
⚽G. AvalosAssists S. Montiel
goals
76'
❌G. CarrilloAssists G. Carrillo
goals
81'
⚽S. Montiel
goals
82'
🔄S. Arias⟵L. Godoy
Substitution
84'
🔄D. Martinez⟵M. Gutierrez
Substitution
84'
🔄L. Alario⟵R. Funes Mori
Substitution
85'
🔄E. Cetre⟵T. Palacios
Substitution
85'
🔄J. Sosa⟵L. Piovi
Substitution
86'
🔄K. Lomonaco⟵G. Avalos
Substitution
89'
Lineup
16
Fernando Muslera 7.2
24
Tomás Palacios 8
26
▾
Ramiro Funes Mori 5.9
4
Santiago Núñez 6.3
20
Eric Meza 6.9
17
▾
Joaquín Tobio Burgos 7.3
22
▾
Alexis Castro 7.2
21
▾
Ezequiel Piovi 7.2
32
Mikel Amondarain 6.2
9
Guido Carrillo 6.6
10
▾
Tiago Palacios 6.9
33
Rodrigo Rey 8.5
22
Facundo Zabala 7
36
Sebastián Valdez 7.6
13
Juan Fedorco 6.7
29
▾
Leonardo Godoy 6.6
23
Iván Marcone 6.6
16
Mateo Perez Curci 6.6
19
▾
Matías Abaldo 6.3
7
⚽
Santiago Montiel 8.2
28
▾
Maximiliano Gutiérrez 6
9
⚽ ▾
Gabriel Ávalos 7.9
Estudiantes L.P. 4-4-2
Substitutes
72′ ▲29 6.2 Perez Fabricio ▾ A. Castro 72′ ▲28 7.3 B. Aguirre ▾ J. Burgos 85′ ▲27 6.3 L. Alario ▾ R. Funes Mori 85′ ▲18 6.5 E. Cetre ▾ T. Palacios 86′ ▲7 6.7 J. Sosa ▾ L. Piovi
Coaching staff
Alexander Medina Manager
Bench
1 Fabricio Iacovich GK 13 Gastón Benedetti DEF 35 Valente Pierani DEF 40 Eros Mancuso DEF 8 Gabriel Neves MID 11 Facundo Farías MID 19 Adolfo Gaich FWD
Independiente 4-2-3-1
Substitutes
63′ ▲8 6.3 M. Meza ▾ M. Abaldo 84′ ▲4 6.7 S. Arias ▾ L. Godoy 84′ ▲32 6.7 D. Martinez ▾ M. Gutierrez 89′ ▲26 K. Lomonaco ▾ G. Avalos
Coaching staff
Gustavo Quinteros Manager
Bench
1 Joaquín Blázquez GK 3 Jonathan De Irastorza DEF 35 Juan Miguel Arrayago DEF 14 Lautaro Millán MID 20 Facundo Cruz MID 10 Luciano Cabral MID 34 Felipe Tempone FWD 18 Facundo Valdéz FWD
Player rating API-Football
Estudiantes L.P.
24
Tomás Palacios
DEF · 90′ · 🟨
8
17
Joaquín Tobio Burgos
MID · 72′
7.3
28
Brian Aguirre
FWD · 18′ · Substitute
7.3
16
Fernando Muslera
GK · 90′
7.2
21
Ezequiel Piovi
MID · 86′
7.2
22
Alexis Castro
MID · 72′
7.2
20
Eric Meza
DEF · 90′
6.9
10
Tiago Palacios
FWD · 85′
6.9
7
José Sosa
MID · 10′ · Substitute
6.7
9
Guido Carrillo C
FWD · 90′
6.6
18
Edwuin Cetré
FWD · 11′ · Substitute
6.5
4
Santiago Núñez
DEF · 90′
6.3
27
Lucas Alario
FWD · 11′ · Substitute
6.3
32
Mikel Amondarain
MID · 90′
6.2
29
Fabricio Pérez
FWD · 18′ · Substitute
6.2
26
Ramiro Funes Mori
DEF · 85′
5.9
1
Fabricio Iacovich
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
13
Gastón Benedetti
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
35
Valente Pierani
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
40
Eros Mancuso
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
8
Gabriel Neves
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
11
Facundo Farías
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
19
Adolfo Gaich
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
Independiente
33
Rodrigo Rey
GK · 90′
8.5
7
Santiago Montiel
MID · 90′ · ⚽1 · 🅰️1
8.2
9
Gabriel Ávalos
FWD · 89′ · ⚽1
7.9
36
Sebastián Valdez
DEF · 90′
7.6
22
Facundo Zabala
DEF · 90′
7
13
Juan Fedorco
DEF · 90′
6.7
4
Santiago Arias
DEF · 12′ · Substitute
6.7
32
David Martínez
MID · 12′ · Substitute
6.7
29
Leonardo Godoy
DEF · 84′ · 🟨
6.6
16
Mateo Perez Curci
MID · 90′
6.6
23
Iván Marcone C
MID · 90′
6.6
19
Matías Abaldo
MID · 63′
6.3
8
Maxi Meza
FWD · 27′ · Substitute
6.3
28
Maximiliano Gutiérrez
MID · 84′
6
26
Kevin Lomónaco
DEF · 1′ · Substitute
—
1
Joaquín Blázquez
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
3
Jonathan De Irastorza
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
35
Juan Miguel Arrayago
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
14
Lautaro Millán
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
20
Facundo Cruz
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
10
Luciano Cabral
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
34
Felipe Tempone
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
18
Facundo Valdéz
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
Estudiantes L.P. × Independiente
20% Shot Accuracy
78% Pass Accuracy
60% Possession
Estudiantes L.P. Independiente
1.87Expected Goals (xG)1.34
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
15Shots14
3Shots on Target5
6Shots off Target6
12Shots Inside Box10
3Shots Outside Box4
6Blocked Shots3
378Passes260
295Accurate Passes169
5Corners5
4Offsides1
3Goalkeeper saves3
24Tackles21
8Interceptions14
3Blocks (defensive)6
74Duels Won55
15Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
—Red Cards—
36% Shot Accuracy
65% Pass Accuracy
40% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Estudiantes L.P.
Eric Meza
3
Alexis Castro
2
Joaquín Tobio Burgos
2
Guido Carrillo
2
Tomás Palacios
1
Brian Aguirre
1
Independiente
Santiago Montiel
3
Sebastián Valdez
2
Juan Fedorco
1
Facundo Zabala
1
Iván Marcone
1
Matías Abaldo
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
Apertura - Group A
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Estudiantes L.P. 16943 +1231
2 Boca Juniors 16862 +1330
3 Velez Sarsfield 16772 +628
4 Talleres Cordoba 16754 +426
5 Independiente 16664 +424
6 Lanus 16664 +324
7 San Lorenzo 16574 +022
8 Union Santa Fe 16565 +421
9 Instituto Cordoba 16637 +021
10 Defensa Y Justicia 16475 −319
11 Gimnasia M. 16547 −819
12 Platense 16376 −516
13 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16448 −1016
14 Newells Old Boys 16367 −1215
15 Deportivo Riestra 16187 −711
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