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Finished · Brasileirão
📝 Match Recap AI

# Botafogo Stuns Cruzeiro in Major Brazilian League Upset

Botafogo pulled off a remarkable upset victory against heavily favored Cruzeiro, winning one-nil in a match that defied pre-game expectations. Gabriel Justino broke the deadlock just before halftime with a well-taken goal in the forty-first minute, which proved to be the decisive moment in a competitive encounter. The prediction model had given Cruzeiro a seventy-two percent chance of victory, making this result a genuine surprise that showcased Botafogo's ability to perform under pressure against a superior favorite.

The visiting side's defensive solidity and attacking efficiency were the keys to their unexpected triumph. Warleson delivered an outstanding performance at the back with a rating of eight point three, while goalscorer Justino earned eight point two for his overall contribution to the match. Vitinho also impressed with a seven point nine rating, as the entire Botafogo team executed a disciplined gameplan that frustrated Cruzeiro and secured a valuable three points.

Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/26 · 19:00
Round
Round 20
Stadium
Governador Magalhães Pinto — Belo Horizonte
Referee
Davi de Oliveira Lacerda
🩹 Absences & Injuries API-Football
Cruzeiro 8
Cassio
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
Gabriel Pec
🩹 Fracture
Ruled Out
Gerson
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
Matheus Pereira
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
Cassio
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
Gabriel Pec
🩹 Fracture
Ruled Out
Gerson
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
Matheus Pereira
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
Botafogo 6
Allan
🩹 Muscle injury
Ruled Out
Junior Santos
🩹 Foot injury
Ruled Out
Kaio Pantaleao
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
Allan
🩹 Muscle injury
Ruled Out
Junior Santos
🩹 Foot injury
Ruled Out
Kaio Pantaleao
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
AI predictionExpected goals 1.0 : 0.4
🧠 The model favours Cruzeiro at 51%, with expected goals 1-0, and the likeliest scorer is Danilo Santos (61%).
Cruzeiro 51% Draw 35% Botafogo 14%
Cruzeiro 0% Draw 0% Botafogo 0%
0 votes
Confidence 47% Medium confidence
📈 In great form Botafogo 🚑 Key absences Cruzeiro 🚑 Key absences Botafogo 🤝 H2H advantage Cruzeiro 🔒 Tight, low-scoring
Most likely score 0 - 0 25%
Both teams to score 21% No
Over / Under 2.5 Under 83%
Over 2.5 17%Under 2.5 83%
Win Probability
100%
Cruzeiro 0% Draw 0% Botafogo 100%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
Danilo Santos
✈️ Botafogo
61%
Arthur Cabral
✈️ Botafogo
61%
Matheus Pereira
🏠 Cruzeiro
39%
Matheus Martins
✈️ Botafogo
12%
Team comparison API-Football
Cruzeiro Botafogo
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
58%
Team strength
71%
H2H
58%Strength42%
53%Attacking strength47%
50%Defensive strength50%
53%Poisson distribution47%
71%Head-to-head29%
56%Expected goals44%
42%
Team strength
29%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Double chance : Cruzeiro or draw
Head-to-head Last 9
3Cruzeiro win
5Draw
1Botafogo win
2026/01/30 Botafogo 4 : 0 Cruzeiro
2025/12/04 Cruzeiro 2 : 2 Botafogo
2025/08/03 Botafogo 0 : 2 Cruzeiro
2024/07/28 Botafogo 0 : 3 Cruzeiro
2024/04/14 Cruzeiro 3 : 2 Botafogo
2023/12/03 Botafogo 0 : 0 Cruzeiro
2023/08/06 Cruzeiro 0 : 0 Botafogo
2021/10/13 Cruzeiro 0 : 0 Botafogo
2021/07/10 Botafogo 3 : 3 Cruzeiro
Key events
🟨Warleson
Yellow Card
26'
🟨Huguinho
Yellow Card
35'
🔄WandersonL. Sinisterra
Substitution
39'
G. JustinoAssists Alex Telles
goals
41'
🟨Fagner
Yellow Card
45+3'
🟨N. Ferraresi
Yellow Card
45+4'
🟨Jonathan Jesus
Yellow Card
56'
🔄Joao MarceloFabricio Bruno
Substitution
60'
🔄K. ArroyoMarquinhos
Substitution
60'
🔄Kauan ToledoDanilo Santos
Substitution
69'
🔄William FurtadoFagner
Substitution
77'
🔄Kaua MoraesG. Rojas
Substitution
77'
🔄S. RodriguezA. Montoro
Substitution
82'
🔄K. BarriaArthur Cabral
Substitution
82'
🟨Alex Telles
Yellow Card
88'
🔄MarcalAlex Telles
Substitution
90'
🔄L. M. Villalba JaumeMatheus Martins
Substitution
90'
🟨K. Barria
Yellow Card
90+4'
🟨K. Arroyo
Yellow Card
90+7'
🟨Kaio Jorge
Yellow Card
90+8'
Lineup
81
Otávio Costa 7.3
27
Gabriel Rojas 6.7
34
Jonathan Jesus 7
15
Fabrício Bruno 6.9
23
Fagner 6.3
17
Luis Sinisterra 6.9
7
Matheus Henrique 7.3
29
Lucas Romero 7
11
Marquinhos 6.7
19
Kaio Jorge 6.3
9
Bruno Rodrigues 6.9
17
Warleson 8.3
13
Alex Telles 6.9
5
Nahuel Ferraresi 7.5
34
Gabriel Justino 8.2
2
Vitinho 7.9
6
Cristian Medina 6.7
75
Huguinho 6.3
11
Matheus Martins 7
8
Danilo Santos 6.5
10
Álvaro Montoro 7.6
19
Arthur Cabral 6.2
Player rating API-Football
Cruzeiro
81
Otávio Costa
GK · 96′
7.3
7
Matheus Henrique
MID · 96′
7.3
94
Wanderson
FWD · 57′ · Substitute
7.3
34
Jonathan Jesus
DEF · 96′ · 🟨
7
29
Lucas Romero C
MID · 96′
7
15
Fabrício Bruno
DEF · 60′
6.9
17
Luis Sinisterra
MID · 39′
6.9
9
Bruno Rodrigues
FWD · 96′
6.9
12
William Furtado
DEF · 19′ · Substitute
6.9
27
Gabriel Rojas
DEF · 77′
6.7
11
Marquinhos
MID · 60′
6.7
43
João Marcelo
DEF · 36′ · Substitute
6.7
99
Keny Arroyo
FWD · 36′ · Substitute
6.6
2
Kauã Moraes
DEF · 19′ · Substitute
6.5
23
Fagner
DEF · 77′ · 🟨
6.3
19
Kaio Jorge
FWD · 96′
6.3
51
Vitor Lamounier
GK · 0′ · Substitute
25
Lucas Villalba
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
16
Lucas Silva
MID · 0′ · Substitute
57
Rayan Lelis
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
5
Zé Lucas
MID · 0′ · Substitute
38
Felipe Morais
MID · 0′ · Substitute
40
Rhuan Gabriel
MID · 0′ · Substitute
Botafogo
17
Warleson
GK · 96′ · 🟨
8.3
34
Gabriel Justino
DEF · 96′ · ⚽1
8.2
2
Vitinho
DEF · 96′
7.9
10
Álvaro Montoro
MID · 82′
7.6
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
DEF · 96′ · 🟨
7.5
11
Matheus Martins
MID · 90′
7
13
Alex Telles C
DEF · 90′ · 🅰️1 · 🟨
6.9
6
Cristian Medina
MID · 96′
6.7
23
Santiago Rodríguez
MID · 14′ · Substitute
6.7
8
Danilo Santos
MID · 69′
6.5
37
Kadir Barría
FWD · 14′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.5
75
Huguinho
MID · 96′ · 🟨
6.3
19
Arthur Cabral
FWD · 82′
6.2
59
Kauan Toledo
MID · 27′ · Substitute
6.2
21
Marçal
DEF · 6′ · Substitute
77
Lucas Villalba
FWD · 6′ · Substitute
12
Gabriel Batista
GK · 0′ · Substitute
4
Mateo Ponte
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
29
Paulinho
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
33
Lucas Monzón
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
14
Jordan Barrera
MID · 0′ · Substitute
88
Edenilson
MID · 0′ · Substitute
79
Lucas Emanuel
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
40% Shot Accuracy
84% Pass Accuracy
61% Possession
Cruzeiro Botafogo
1.52Expected Goals (xG)0.40
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
15Shots8
6Shots on Target4
3Shots off Target2
11Shots Inside Box5
4Shots Outside Box3
6Blocked Shots2
448Passes285
378Accurate Passes210
9Corners1
2Offsides0
3Goalkeeper saves6
13Tackles15
7Interceptions4
2Blocks (defensive)6
45Duels Won46
14Fouls18
2Yellow Cards5
Red Cards
50% Shot Accuracy
74% Pass Accuracy
39% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Cruzeiro
Lucas Romero
3
Fagner
2
Jonathan Jesus
1
Gabriel Rojas
1
Marquinhos
1
Matheus Henrique
1
Botafogo
Alex Telles
2
Vitinho
1
Cristian Medina
1
Matheus Martins
1
Kadir Barría
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Palmeiras 201352 +1844
2 Flamengo 191153 +1938
3 Atletico Paranaense 201136 +936
4 Fluminense 20965 +533
5 RB Bragantino 20947 +631
6 Bahia 20875 +431
7 Botafogo 20857 +229
8 Atletico-MG 20848 +028
9 Corinthians 20776 +228
10 Coritiba 20767 −227
11 Cruzeiro 20767 −427
12 Sao Paulo 20758 +226
13 Vitoria 20758 −526
14 Santos 20578 −422
15 Gremio 20578 −422
16 Internacional 20569 −421
17 Vasco DA Gama 20569 −821
18 Remo 20569 −921
19 Mirassol 19559 −520
20 Chapecoense B 201712 −2210
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