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📝 Match Recap AI

# Gremio and Fluminense Share Points in Tight Brazilian League Encounter

Gremio and Fluminense played out a dramatic one-all draw in the Brazilian league, with the result partly defying expectations that had favored a Gremio victory. Fluminense took the lead through Hulk in the sixty-fifth minute, seemingly on course for an upset win against the odds, but Gremio mounted a late rally to equalize through Diego Caito in the eighty-ninth minute. The draw represents a missed opportunity for Gremio, whose win probability had been set at forty-eight percent before kickoff, though it represents a respectable result for Fluminense given their lower twenty percent chance of victory.

Gremio's defensive line proved their strongest asset throughout the match, with both Marlon and goalkeeper Gabriel Grando putting in solid performances to keep their side in contention. Cristian Pavón was the standout performer on the pitch with a rating of seven point two, leading Gremio's attacking efforts and helping orchestrate the comeback that snatched a point late in the game. The point leaves both teams with work to do, though Gremio will likely feel frustrated at not converting their superior pre-match prediction into three points.

Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/26 · 21:30
Round
Round 20
Stadium
Arena do Grêmio — Porto Alegre
Referee
Edina Alves Batista
🩹 Absences & Injuries API-Football
Gremio 4
Fabian Balbuena
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
L. Perez
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
Fabian Balbuena
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
L. Perez
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
Fluminense 8
Jemmes
🩹 Thigh muscle
Ruled Out
John Kennedy
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
Matheus Reis
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
J. Millan
🩹 Thigh muscle
Ruled Out
Jemmes
🩹 Thigh muscle
Ruled Out
John Kennedy
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
Matheus Reis
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
J. Millan
🩹 Thigh muscle
Ruled Out
AI predictionExpected goals 1.2 : 0.6
🧠 The model favours Gremio at 49%, with expected goals 1-1, and the likeliest scorer is John Kennedy (54%).
Gremio 49% Draw 32% Fluminense 19%
Gremio 0% Draw 0% Fluminense 0%
0 votes
Confidence 64% Medium confidence
🏠 Strong at home Gremio 📉 Poor form Fluminense 🚑 Key absences Gremio 🚑 Key absences Fluminense 🔒 Tight, low-scoring
Most likely score 1 - 0 20%
Both teams to score 32% No
Over / Under 2.5 Under 73%
Over 2.5 27%Under 2.5 73%
Win Probability
100%
Gremio 0% Draw 100% Fluminense 0%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
John Kennedy
✈️ Fluminense
54%
Carlos Vinícius
🏠 Gremio
42%
Team comparison API-Football
Gremio Fluminense
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
40%
Team strength
7%
H2H
40%Strength60%
50%Attacking strength50%
40%Defensive strength60%
54%Poisson distribution46%
7%Head-to-head93%
36%Expected goals64%
60%
Team strength
93%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Double chance : draw or Fluminense
Head-to-head Last 9
4Gremio win
1Draw
4Fluminense win
2026/01/28 Fluminense 2 : 1 Gremio
2025/12/03 Gremio 1 : 2 Fluminense
2025/08/03 Fluminense 1 : 0 Gremio
2024/11/02 Fluminense 2 : 2 Gremio
2024/08/20 Fluminense 2 : 1 Gremio
2024/08/13 Gremio 2 : 1 Fluminense
2024/06/30 Gremio 1 : 0 Fluminense
2023/12/07 Fluminense 2 : 3 Gremio
2023/08/13 Gremio 2 : 1 Fluminense
Key events
🟨Hercules
Yellow Card
12'
🟨Guga
Yellow Card
13'
🔄ReneGuilherme Arana
Substitution
21'
Hulk
Goal (Penalty)
65'
🟨Thiago Silva
Yellow Card
69'
🔄Diego CaitoC. Pavon
Substitution
69'
🔄M. BraithwaiteE. Noriega
Substitution
69'
🔄G. CanoHulk
Substitution
75'
🔄NonatoL. Acosta
Substitution
75'
🟨Carlos Vinicius
Yellow Card
76'
🔄J. CabralF. Amuzu
Substitution
78'
🔄J. EnamoradoTete
Substitution
78'
🟨A. Canobbio
Yellow Card
79'
🔄Pedro GabrielMarlon
Substitution
80'
🔄Y. SoteldoK. Serna
Substitution
87'
🔄IgnacioHercules
Substitution
87'
Diego CaitoAssists J. Cabral
goals
89'
🟨J. Nardoni
Yellow Card
90+2'
Lineup
12
Gabriel Grando 6.9
23
Marlon 7
4
Walter Kannemann 6.6
6
Gustavo Martins 6.9
7
Cristian Pavón 7.2
19
Erick Noriega 6.3
9
Francis Amuzu 6.9
5
Juan Nardoni 6.3
20
Mathias Villasanti 6.7
21
Tetê 6.7
95
Carlos Vinícius 6.5
1
Fábio 6.9
13
Guilherme Arana 6.5
22
Juan Pablo Freytes 6.9
3
Thiago Silva 6.9
23
Guga 6.3
35
Hércules 6.6
8
Martinelli 6.6
17
Agustín Canobbio 6.6
32
Luciano Acosta 6.7
90
Kevin Serna 6.3
7
Hulk 6.6
Player rating API-Football
Gremio
7
Cristian Pavón
DEF · 49′
7.2
23
Marlon
DEF · 49′
7
12
Gabriel Grando
GK · 49′
6.9
6
Gustavo Martins
DEF · 49′
6.9
9
Francis Amuzu
MID · 49′
6.9
21
Tetê
MID · 49′
6.7
20
Mathias Villasanti
MID · 49′
6.7
4
Walter Kannemann C
DEF · 49′
6.6
95
Carlos Vinícius
FWD · 49′
6.5
19
Erick Noriega
MID · 49′
6.3
5
Juan Nardoni
MID · 49′
6.3
24
Thiago Beltrame
GK · 0′ · Substitute
54
Pedro Gabriel
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
27
Diego Caito
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
43
Luis Guedes
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
3
Wagner Leonardo
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
37
Gabriel Mec
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
65
Riquelme Freitas
MID · 0′ · Substitute
17
Dodi
MID · 0′ · Substitute
99
José Enamorado
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
22
Martin Braithwaite
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
30
Matheus Nascimento
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
77
Jovane Cabral
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
Fluminense
1
Fábio
GK · 49′
6.9
3
Thiago Silva C
DEF · 49′
6.9
22
Juan Pablo Freytes
DEF · 49′
6.9
32
Luciano Acosta
MID · 49′
6.7
8
Martinelli
MID · 49′
6.6
35
Hércules
MID · 49′ · 🟨
6.6
17
Agustín Canobbio
MID · 49′
6.6
7
Hulk
FWD · 49′
6.6
13
Guilherme Arana
DEF · 21′
6.5
23
Guga
DEF · 49′ · 🟨
6.3
90
Kevin Serna
MID · 49′
6.3
6
Renê
DEF · 28′ · Substitute
6.3
27
Marcelo Pitaluga
GK · 0′ · Substitute
2
Samuel Xavier
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
21
Igor Rabello
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
4
Ignácio
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
46
Júlio Fidelis
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
94
Otávio
MID · 0′ · Substitute
28
Riquelme Felipe
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
30
Yeferson Soteldo
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
10
Ganso
MID · 0′ · Substitute
16
Nonato
MID · 0′ · Substitute
14
Germán Cano
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
33% Shot Accuracy
84% Pass Accuracy
44% Possession
Gremio Fluminense
0.49Expected Goals (xG)0.10
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
6Shots3
2Shots on Target1
2Shots off Target1
4Shots Inside Box1
2Shots Outside Box2
2Blocked Shots1
218Passes299
184Accurate Passes265
2Corners1
0Offsides1
1Goalkeeper saves2
7Tackles3
4Interceptions3
1Blocks (defensive)2
16Duels Won14
7Fouls5
0Yellow Cards2
Red Cards
33% Shot Accuracy
89% Pass Accuracy
56% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Gremio
Cristian Pavón
2
Marlon
1
Tetê
1
Francis Amuzu
1
Fluminense
Thiago Silva
1
Hércules
1
Luciano Acosta
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Palmeiras 201352 +1844
2 Flamengo 191153 +1938
3 Atletico Paranaense 201136 +936
4 Fluminense 20965 +533
5 RB Bragantino 20947 +631
6 Bahia 20875 +431
7 Botafogo 20857 +229
8 Atletico-MG 20848 +028
9 Corinthians 20776 +228
10 Coritiba 20767 −227
11 Cruzeiro 20767 −427
12 Sao Paulo 20758 +226
13 Vitoria 20758 −526
14 Santos 20578 −422
15 Gremio 20578 −422
16 Internacional 20569 −421
17 Vasco DA Gama 20569 −821
18 Remo 20569 −921
19 Mirassol 19559 −520
20 Chapecoense B 201712 −2210
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