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Finished · Brasileirão
Flamengo
1 : 1
Sao Paulo
📝 Match Recap AI

# Flamengo and Sao Paulo Share Points in Surprise Draw

Flamengo's heavy pre-match favoritism proved misplaced as Sao Paulo held firm to secure a 1-1 draw in a Brazilian league encounter that defied expectations. The hosts took the lead through Leo Pereira's fifty-seventh-minute strike, but Jonathan Calleri's penalty-area finish thirteen minutes later denied Flamengo what the model had predicted would be a dominant victory with 87 percent confidence in their favor. The result represented a significant upset, with the draw arriving at odds of just eleven percent before kickoff.

The match was defined by balanced performances from both sides, reflected in the standout individual displays from Erick Pulgar of Flamengo and a trio of strong contributions from Sao Paulo's defense led by Lucas Ramon and Wendell. Neither team could impose sufficient control to claim victory despite the hosts' early breakthrough, with Sao Paulo's resilience ultimately earning them a valuable point away from home and tempering what had been forecast as a comfortable Flamengo win.

Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/26 · 21:30
Round
Round 20
Stadium
Estádio do Maracanã — Rio de Janeiro
Referee
Anderson Daronco
🩹 Absences & Injuries API-Football
Flamengo 8
J. Carrascal
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
Lucas Paqueta
🩹 Muscle injury
Ruled Out
Luiz Araujo
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
G. Plata
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
J. Carrascal
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
Lucas Paqueta
🩹 Muscle injury
Ruled Out
Luiz Araujo
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
G. Plata
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
Sao Paulo 8
D. Bobadilla
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
E. Diaz
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
Lucas Moura
🩹 Achilles tendon
Ruled Out
R. Toloi
🩹 Muscle injury
Ruled Out
D. Bobadilla
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
E. Diaz
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
Lucas Moura
🩹 Achilles tendon
Ruled Out
R. Toloi
🩹 Muscle injury
Ruled Out
AI predictionExpected goals 2.4 : 0.2
🧠 The model favours Flamengo at 87%, with expected goals 2-0, and the likeliest scorer is Pedro (87%).
Flamengo 87% Draw 11% Sao Paulo 2%
Flamengo 0% Draw 0% Sao Paulo 0%
0 votes
Confidence 95% High confidence
📈 In great form Flamengo 📉 Poor form Sao Paulo 🚑 Key absences Flamengo 🚑 Key absences Sao Paulo
Most likely score 2 - 0 21%
Both teams to score 16% No
Over / Under 2.5 Under 52%
Over 2.5 48%Under 2.5 52%
Win Probability
100%
Flamengo 0% Draw 100% Sao Paulo 0%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
Pedro
🏠 Flamengo
87%
Bruno Henrique
🏠 Flamengo
50%
J. Calleri
✈️ Sao Paulo
5%
Luciano
✈️ Sao Paulo
5%
Team comparison API-Football
Flamengo Sao Paulo
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
91%
Team strength
38%
H2H
91%Strength9%
64%Attacking strength36%
69%Defensive strength31%
72%Poisson distribution28%
38%Head-to-head62%
50%Expected goals50%
9%
Team strength
62%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Double chance : Flamengo or draw
Head-to-head Last 9
2Flamengo win
3Draw
4Sao Paulo win
2026/01/29 Sao Paulo 2 : 1 Flamengo
2025/11/06 Sao Paulo 2 : 2 Flamengo
2025/07/12 Flamengo 2 : 0 Sao Paulo
2025/01/19 Sao Paulo 0 : 0 Flamengo
2024/08/04 Sao Paulo 1 : 0 Flamengo
2024/04/18 Flamengo 2 : 1 Sao Paulo
2023/12/07 Sao Paulo 1 : 0 Flamengo
2023/09/24 Sao Paulo 1 : 1 Flamengo
2023/09/17 Flamengo 0 : 1 Sao Paulo
Key events
⚽Leo PereiraAssists Jorginho
goals
57'
🔄G. de Arrascaeta⟵Lorran
Substitution
58'
🟨Alex Sandro
Yellow Card
63'
🔄Ferreira⟵Artur
Substitution
66'
🔄Victor Sa⟵Danielzinho
Substitution
66'
🟨Wendell
Yellow Card
69'
⚽Jonathan CalleriAssists Luis Osorio
goals
70'
🔄Everton⟵Bruno Henrique
Substitution
79'
🔄Evertton Araujo⟵E. Pulgar
Substitution
87'
🔄Wallace Yan⟵Pedro
Substitution
87'
🟨Jonathan Calleri
Yellow Card
88'
🔄Andre Silva⟵Luciano
Substitution
90'
📺Samuel Lino
Goal Disallowed - offside
90+1'
🔄Sabino⟵Wendell
Substitution
90+5'
🟨Marcos Antonio
Yellow Card
90+11'
Lineup
1
Agustín Rossi 6.6
26
Alex Sandro 6.7
4
⚽
Léo Pereira 6.7
44
Vitão 6.6
22
Emerson Royal 6.6
21
Jorginho 6.6
5
▾
Erick Pulgar 6.9
27
▾
Bruno Henrique 6.6
16
Samuel Lino 6.6
99
▾
Lorran 6.3
9
▾
Pedro 6.3
23
Rafael 6.6
18
▾
Wendell 6.9
54
Luis Osorio 6.3
5
Robert Arboleda 6.7
19
Lucas Ramon 6.9
8
Marcos Antônio 6.5
94
▾
Danielzinho 6.6
29
Pablo Maia 6.7
37
▾
Artur 6.7
10
▾
Luciano 6.7
9
⚽
Jonathan Calleri 6.3
Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Substitutes
58′ ▲10 G. de Arrascaeta ▾ Lorran 79′ ▲11 Everton ▾ Bruno Henrique 87′ ▲52 Evertton Araujo ▾ E. Pulgar 87′ ▲64 Wallace Yan ▾ Pedro
Coaching staff
Leonardo Jardim Manager
Bench
42 Andrew GK 2 Guillermo Varela DEF 61 João Victor DEF 77 Johnny Goes DEF 13 Danilo DEF 6 Ayrton Lucas DEF 8 Saúl Ñíguez MID 79 Caio Joshua MID
Sao Paulo 4-4-2
Substitutes
66′ ▲11 Ferreira ▾ Artur 66′ ▲27 Victor Sa ▾ Danielzinho 90′ ▲17 Andre Silva ▾ Luciano 90′ ▲35 Sabino ▾ Wendell
Coaching staff
Junior Dorival Manager
Bench
31 Carlos Coronel GK 56 Nicolas Bosshardt DEF 53 Isac DEF 20 Aurélio Buta DEF 34 Tetê FWD 48 Djhordney Ferreira MID 80 Cauly MID 43 Gustavo Santana MID
Player rating API-Football
Flamengo
5
Erick Pulgar
MID · 48′
6.9
4
Léo Pereira
DEF · 48′
6.7
26
Alex Sandro
DEF · 48′
6.7
1
Agustín Rossi
GK · 48′
6.6
22
Emerson Royal
DEF · 48′
6.6
44
Vitão
DEF · 48′
6.6
21
Jorginho
MID · 48′
6.6
16
Samuel Lino
MID · 48′
6.6
27
Bruno Henrique C
MID · 48′
6.6
99
Lorran
MID · 48′
6.3
9
Pedro
FWD · 48′
6.3
42
Andrew
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
2
Guillermo Varela
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
61
João Victor
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
77
Johnny Goes
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
13
Danilo
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
6
Ayrton Lucas
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
11
Everton
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
8
Saúl Ñíguez
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
10
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
52
Evertton Araujo
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
79
Caio Joshua
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
64
Wallace Yan
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
Sao Paulo
19
Lucas Ramon
DEF · 48′
6.9
18
Wendell
DEF · 48′
6.9
5
Robert Arboleda
DEF · 48′
6.7
37
Artur
MID · 48′
6.7
29
Pablo Maia
MID · 48′
6.7
10
Luciano
FWD · 48′
6.7
23
Rafael
GK · 48′
6.6
94
Danielzinho
MID · 48′
6.6
8
Marcos Antônio
MID · 48′
6.5
54
Luis Osorio
DEF · 48′
6.3
9
Jonathan Calleri C
FWD · 48′
6.3
31
Carlos Coronel
GK · 0′ · Substitute
—
35
Sabino
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
56
Nicolas Bosshardt
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
53
Isac
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
20
Aurélio Buta
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
—
27
Victor Sá
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
34
Tetê
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
11
Ferreirinha
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
48
Djhordney Ferreira
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
80
Cauly
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
43
Gustavo Santana
MID · 0′ · Substitute
—
17
André Silva
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
—
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
Flamengo × Sao Paulo
33% Shot Accuracy
87% Pass Accuracy
50% Possession
Flamengo Sao Paulo
0.24Expected Goals (xG)0.15
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
3Shots2
1Shots on Target0
2Shots off Target2
3Shots Inside Box2
0Shots Outside Box0
0Blocked Shots0
240Passes238
208Accurate Passes201
0Corners1
1Offsides1
0Goalkeeper saves1
6Tackles8
5Interceptions7
0Blocks (defensive)0
19Duels Won21
9Fouls8
—Yellow Cards—
—Red Cards—
0% Shot Accuracy
84% Pass Accuracy
50% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Flamengo
Pedro
2
Samuel Lino
1
Sao Paulo
Jonathan Calleri
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Palmeiras 201352 +1844
2 Flamengo 191153 +1938
3 Atletico Paranaense 201136 +936
4 Fluminense 20965 +533
5 RB Bragantino 20947 +631
6 Bahia 20875 +431
7 Botafogo 20857 +229
8 Atletico-MG 20848 +028
9 Corinthians 20776 +228
10 Coritiba 20767 −227
11 Cruzeiro 20767 −427
12 Sao Paulo 20758 +226
13 Vitoria 20758 −526
14 Santos 20578 −422
15 Gremio 20578 −422
16 Internacional 20569 −421
17 Vasco DA Gama 20569 −821
18 Remo 20569 −921
19 Mirassol 19559 −520
20 Chapecoense B 201712 −2210
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