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# Cruz Azul Edges Past Puebla in Expected Victory

Cruz Azul secured a 2-1 victory over Puebla in a match that largely followed pre-game expectations, with the hosts' seventy-two percent win probability proving accurate. Puebla started brightly and took an early lead through Fernando Monarrez in the twenty-eighth minute, but Cruz Azul responded effectively before halftime when Luka Romero leveled the score in the forty-fourth minute. The decisive moment came late in the second half as Christian Ebere completed the comeback in the eighty-second minute, securing three points for the favorites.

Monarrez was the standout performer on the day despite his team's defeat, earning an impressive eight-point-two rating and proving a constant threat in attack. For Cruz Azul, Jeremy Márquez delivered a solid defensive performance with a seven-point-six rating, while Romero's goal-scoring contribution—reflected in his seven-point-three rating—proved crucial in turning the match around. The result reflected the pre-match analysis, with Cruz Azul's superior quality ultimately overwhelming their opponents in what was a competitive but ultimately one-sided encounter.

Estadio Banorte
🏟️ Estadio Banorte Mexico City
Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/22 · 01:00
Round
Apertura - 2
Stadium
Estadio Banorte — Mexico City
Referee
Karen Hernandez Andrade
AI predictionExpected goals 2.9 : 1.2
🧠 The model favours Cruz Azul at 72%, with expected goals 3-1, and the likeliest scorer is L. Romero (82%).
🤖 AI won
Cruz Azul 72% Draw 15% Puebla 13%
Cruz Azul 0% Draw 0% Puebla 0%
0 votes
Confidence 78% High confidence
📈 In great form Cruz Azul ⚽ Goals expected
Most likely score 2 - 1 8%
Both teams to score 66% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Over 78%
Over 2.5 78%Under 2.5 22%
Win Probability
100%
Cruz Azul 100% Draw 0% Puebla 0%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
L. Romero
🏠 Cruz Azul
82%
J. Márquez
🏠 Cruz Azul
69%
C. Ebere
🏠 Cruz Azul
44%
Team comparison API-Football
Cruz Azul Puebla
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
50%
Team strength
93%
H2H
50%Strength50%
75%Attacking strength25%
0%Defensive strength100%
0%Poisson distribution0%
93%Head-to-head7%
80%Expected goals20%
50%
Team strength
7%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Winner : Cruz Azul
Head-to-head Last 10
5Cruz Azul win
3Draw
2Puebla win
2026/01/18 Cruz Azul 1 : 0 Puebla
2025/11/01 Puebla 0 : 3 Cruz Azul
2025/01/25 Cruz Azul 1 : 1 Puebla
2024/10/19 Puebla 1 : 2 Cruz Azul
2024/04/13 Puebla 0 : 1 Cruz Azul
2023/11/13 Cruz Azul 1 : 2 Puebla
2023/02/18 Puebla 1 : 3 Cruz Azul
2022/07/24 Cruz Azul 2 : 2 Puebla
2022/03/06 Cruz Azul 1 : 3 Puebla
2021/09/25 Puebla 1 : 1 Cruz Azul
Key events
F. MonarrezAssists A. Herrera
goals
28'
🟨L. Romero
Yellow Card
37'
L. RomeroAssists J. Marquez
goals
44'
🟨N. Ibanez
Yellow Card
45+2'
🔄C. BaltazarA. Herrera
Substitution
56'
🔄E. MustreL. Hernandez
Substitution
56'
🔄A. PalavecinoN. Ibanez
Substitution
58'
🔄W. DittaG. Piovi
Substitution
58'
🔄A. GarciaL. Romero
Substitution
67'
🔄O. CamposG. Fernandez
Substitution
67'
🔄C. EbereC. Rotondi
Substitution
68'
🔄A. RamirezA. Organista
Substitution
77'
🔄B. GarnicaK. Velasco
Substitution
78'
C. EbereAssists J. Paradela
goals
82'
🟨A. Ramirez
Yellow Card
84'
🔄M. TomasS. Sanabria
Substitution
87'
🟨E. Mustre
Yellow Card
90+1'
🟨F. Monarrez
Yellow Card
90+5'
Lineup
23
Kevin Mier 6.9
29
Carlos Rotondi 6.2
5
Jesús Orozco 7.2
33
Gonzalo Piovi 6.9
16
Jeremy Márquez 7.6
19
Carlos Rodríguez 6.9
6
Erik Lira 7.2
18
Luka Romero 7.3
20
José Paradela 7.2
21
Gabriel Fernández 6.7
7
Nicolás Ibáñez 6.2
28
Daniel Gutierrez 6.9
7
Fernando Monarrez 8.2
4
Juan Pablo Vargas 6.7
5
Facundo Almada 6.3
2
Angel Leyva 6.2
3
Alberto Herrera 6.6
21
Sergio Sanabria 7.2
24
Alejandro Organista 6.2
11
Emiliano Gómez 7.3
9
Luifer Hernández 6.2
26
Kevin Velasco 6.2
Player rating API-Football
Cruz Azul
16
Jeremy Márquez
DEF · 90′ · 🅰️1
7.6
18
Luka Romero
MID · 67′ · ⚽1 · 🟨
7.3
11
Osinachi Ebere
FWD · 22′ · ⚽1 · Substitute
7.3
5
Jesús Orozco
DEF · 90′
7.2
6
Erik Lira C
MID · 90′
7.2
20
José Paradela
MID · 90′ · 🅰️1
7.2
3
Omar Campos
DEF · 23′ · Substitute
7.2
4
Willer Ditta
DEF · 32′ · Substitute
7
23
Kevin Mier
GK · 90′
6.9
33
Gonzalo Piovi
DEF · 58′
6.9
19
Carlos Rodríguez
MID · 90′
6.9
8
Agustín Palavecino
MID · 32′ · Substitute
6.9
21
Gabriel Fernández
FWD · 67′
6.7
17
Amaury Garcia
MID · 23′ · Substitute
6.7
29
Carlos Rotondi
DEF · 68′
6.2
7
Nicolás Ibáñez
FWD · 58′ · 🟨
6.2
1
Andrés Gudiño
GK · 0′ · Substitute
12
Alan Montes
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
22
Jorge Rodarte Barragan
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
10
Andres Montaño
MID · 0′ · Substitute
14
Juan Calero
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
Puebla
7
Fernando Monarrez
DEF · 90′ · ⚽1 · 🟨
8.2
11
Emiliano Gómez
FWD · 90′
7.3
21
Sergio Sanabria
MID · 87′
7.2
28
Daniel Gutierrez
GK · 90′
6.9
22
Carlos Baltazar
MID · 34′ · Substitute
6.9
4
Juan Pablo Vargas C
DEF · 90′
6.7
3
Alberto Herrera
MID · 56′ · 🅰️1
6.6
5
Facundo Almada
DEF · 90′
6.3
29
Eduardo Mustre
FWD · 34′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.3
27
Brayan Garnica
FWD · 12′ · Substitute
6.3
10
Mathías Tomás
MID · 10′ · Substitute
6.3
2
Angel Leyva
DEF · 90′
6.2
24
Alejandro Organista
MID · 77′
6.2
26
Kevin Velasco
FWD · 78′
6.2
9
Luifer Hernández
FWD · 56′
6.2
16
Alonso Ramirez
MID · 13′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.2
33
Jesús Rodríguez
GK · 0′ · Substitute
15
Óscar Villa
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
13
Eduardo Navarro
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
8
Omar Moreno
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
17
Raúl Castillo
MID · 0′ · Substitute
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
32% Shot Accuracy
90% Pass Accuracy
67% Possession
Cruz Azul Puebla
1.31Expected Goals (xG)0.86
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
22Shots10
7Shots on Target4
9Shots off Target1
10Shots Inside Box4
12Shots Outside Box6
6Blocked Shots5
565Passes276
507Accurate Passes212
7Corners3
0Offsides2
3Goalkeeper saves5
21Tackles15
10Interceptions10
5Blocks (defensive)6
47Duels Won47
11Fouls7
2Yellow Cards3
Red Cards
40% Shot Accuracy
77% Pass Accuracy
33% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Cruz Azul
Carlos Rodríguez
4
Luka Romero
4
Jeremy Márquez
3
José Paradela
3
Agustín Palavecino
2
Gonzalo Piovi
1
Puebla
Fernando Monarrez
2
Alberto Herrera
2
Kevin Velasco
2
Angel Leyva
1
Alejandro Organista
1
Emiliano Gómez
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Club Tijuana 2200 +36
2 Cruz Azul 2200 +26
3 Atlas 2200 +26
4 Necaxa 2200 +26
5 Club America 2110 +14
6 CF Pachuca 2101 +23
7 Toluca 2101 +13
8 Monterrey 2101 +03
9 Club Queretaro 2101 +03
10 Puebla 2101 +03
11 Guadalajara Chivas 2101 −13
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2101 −23
13 Atletico San Luis 2011 −11
14 Atlante FC 2011 −11
15 Tigres UANL 2011 −21
16 Leon 2002 −20
17 Santos Laguna 2002 −20
18 FC Juarez 2002 −20
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