HomeLiga MXMatch details
Finished · Liga MX
📝 Match Recap AI

# Pumas Deliver Shocking Upset Over Toluca

In a stunning upset, U.N.A.M. Pumas secured a 2-1 victory against heavily favored Toluca, defying the pre-match prediction that gave the hosts an 83 percent chance of winning. Jorge Díaz Price opened the scoring for Toluca in the 14th minute, but Pumas mounted an impressive second-half comeback with Victor Arteaga equalizing in the 57th minute and Sebastián Córdova clinching the win just six minutes later. The visitors' turnaround proved decisive as they turned what appeared to be a lopsided matchup into a commanding performance.

Arteaga emerged as the standout performer, earning an 8.0 rating for his crucial goal and overall play in midfield, while Córdova contributed significantly with a 7.5 rating to seal the result. Despite putting up a solid effort with Díaz recording a strong 7.7 rating, Toluca could not sustain their early advantage and ultimately succumbed to Pumas' second-half dominance. The result serves as a reminder of football's unpredictability, as the underdog visitors accomplished what seemed improbable before kickoff.

Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/22 · 03:05
Round
Apertura - 2
Stadium
Estadio Nemesio Diez — Toluca
Referee
Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez
AI predictionExpected goals 3.2 : 0.8
🧠 The model favours Toluca at 83%, with expected goals 3-1, and the likeliest scorer is Paulinho (89%).
Toluca 83% Draw 11% U.N.A.M. - Pumas 6%
Toluca 0% Draw 0% U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0%
0 votes
Confidence 78% High confidence
⚽ Goals expected
Most likely score 3 - 0 10%
Both teams to score 53% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Over 76%
Over 2.5 76%Under 2.5 24%
Win Probability
100%
Toluca 0% Draw 0% U.N.A.M. - Pumas 100%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
Paulinho
🏠 Toluca
89%
J. Gallardo
🏠 Toluca
89%
J. Angulo
🏠 Toluca
89%
Team comparison API-Football
Toluca U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
100%
Team strength
75%
H2H
100%Strength0%
100%Attacking strength0%
100%Defensive strength0%
0%Poisson distribution0%
75%Head-to-head25%
64%Expected goals36%
0%
Team strength
25%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Winner : Toluca
Head-to-head Last 10
2Toluca win
6Draw
2U.N.A.M. - Pumas win
2026/03/04 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2 : 3 Toluca
2025/08/17 Toluca 1 : 1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2025/01/30 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1 : 1 Toluca
2024/10/06 Toluca 1 : 1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2024/03/18 Toluca 3 : 0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2023/08/19 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1 : 1 Toluca
2023/04/16 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3 : 1 Toluca
2022/12/14 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1 : 1 Toluca
2022/09/11 Toluca 2 : 2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2022/01/11 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 5 : 0 Toluca
Key events
J. Diaz PriceAssists Helinho
goals
14'
🟨Helinho
Yellow Card
17'
🔄S. CordovaP. Bennevendo
Substitution
46'
V. ArteagaAssists R. Morales
goals
57'
S. CordovaAssists R. Lopez
goals
63'
🔄N. CastroV. Guzman
Substitution
66'
🔄F. RomeroJ. Angulo
Substitution
66'
🔄J. GallardoA. Vega
Substitution
66'
🔄C. CarrilloB. A. Garcia Caprizo
Substitution
76'
🟨R. Lopez
Yellow Card
80'
🔄S. SimonD. Barbosa
Substitution
86'
🔄A. MedinaJuninho
Substitution
88'
🔄G. MartinezR. Morales
Substitution
90+1'
🔄T. LeoneU. Antuna
Substitution
90+6'
Lineup
1
Hugo Gonzalez 7.2
17
Brian García 6.7
13
Luan 6.5
4
Bruno Méndez 6.7
2
Diego Barbosa 6.3
24
Fernando Arce Juárez 6.9
7
Víctor Guzmán 6.9
9
Alexis Vega 6.7
10
Jesús Ricardo Angulo 6.3
11
Helinho 7.2
29
Jorge Díaz 7.7
1
Keylor Navas 6.9
77
Álvaro Angulo 6.9
5
Rubén Duarte 6.7
6
Nathan Silva 7
2
Pablo Bennevendo 6.7
18
Victor Arteaga 8
45
Pedro Vite 7.3
7
Rodrigo Lopez 6.9
31
Robert Morales 6.6
23
Juninho 6.9
21
Uriel Antuna 6.5
Player rating API-Football
Toluca
29
Jorge Díaz
FWD · 90′ · ⚽1
7.7
1
Hugo Gonzalez
GK · 90′
7.2
11
Helinho
MID · 90′ · 🅰️1 · 🟨
7.2
7
Víctor Guzmán
MID · 66′
6.9
24
Fernando Arce Juárez
MID · 90′
6.9
20
Jesús Gallardo
DEF · 24′ · Substitute
6.9
5
Franco Romero
MID · 24′ · Substitute
6.9
8
Nicolás Castro
MID · 24′ · Substitute
6.9
4
Bruno Méndez
DEF · 90′
6.7
17
Brian García
DEF · 76′
6.7
9
Alexis Vega C
MID · 66′
6.7
13
Luan
DEF · 90′
6.5
2
Diego Barbosa
DEF · 86′
6.3
10
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
MID · 66′
6.3
19
Santiago Simón
MID · 11′ · Substitute
6.3
191
Carlos Carrillo
FWD · 14′ · Substitute
6.2
22
Luis García
GK · 0′ · Substitute
6
Federico Pereira
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
25
Everardo López
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
3
Antonio Briseño
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
35
Érick Gutiérrez
MID · 0′ · Substitute
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
18
Victor Arteaga
MID · 90′ · ⚽1
8
17
Sebastián Córdova
MID · 45′ · ⚽1 · Substitute
7.5
45
Pedro Vite
MID · 90′
7.3
6
Nathan Silva
DEF · 90′
7
1
Keylor Navas C
GK · 90′
6.9
77
Álvaro Angulo
DEF · 90′
6.9
7
Rodrigo Lopez
MID · 90′ · 🅰️1 · 🟨
6.9
23
Juninho
FWD · 88′
6.9
2
Pablo Bennevendo
DEF · 45′
6.7
5
Rubén Duarte
DEF · 90′
6.7
22
Alan Medina
FWD · 9′ · Substitute
6.7
31
Robert Morales
FWD · 89′ · 🅰️1
6.6
21
Uriel Antuna
FWD · 89′
6.5
24
Antonio Leone
DEF · 1′ · Substitute
9
Guillermo Martínez
FWD · 1′ · Substitute
35
Pablo Lara
GK · 0′ · Substitute
12
Cristian Calderón
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
199
Kleber Carranza
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
34
Angel Azuaje
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
20
Santiago Trigos
MID · 0′ · Substitute
203
Stanley García
MID · 0′ · Substitute
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
25% Shot Accuracy
85% Pass Accuracy
66% Possession
Toluca U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.19Expected Goals (xG)0.66
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
16Shots8
4Shots on Target3
5Shots off Target4
10Shots Inside Box4
6Shots Outside Box4
7Blocked Shots1
576Passes306
489Accurate Passes234
9Corners1
0Offsides2
1Goalkeeper saves3
14Tackles18
11Interceptions20
1Blocks (defensive)7
41Duels Won43
4Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
Red Cards
38% Shot Accuracy
76% Pass Accuracy
34% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Toluca
Helinho
4
Brian García
1
Fernando Arce Juárez
1
Alexis Vega
1
Jorge Díaz
1
Jesús Gallardo
1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Rodrigo Lopez
2
Robert Morales
2
Victor Arteaga
1
Uriel Antuna
1
Juninho
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Club Tijuana 2200 +36
2 Cruz Azul 2200 +26
3 Atlas 2200 +26
4 Necaxa 2200 +26
5 Club America 2110 +14
6 CF Pachuca 2101 +23
7 Toluca 2101 +13
8 Monterrey 2101 +03
9 Club Queretaro 2101 +03
10 Puebla 2101 +03
11 Guadalajara Chivas 2101 −13
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2101 −23
13 Atletico San Luis 2011 −11
14 Atlante FC 2011 −11
15 Tigres UANL 2011 −21
16 Leon 2002 −20
17 Santos Laguna 2002 −20
18 FC Juarez 2002 −20
Discussion 0 comments
No comments yet. Be the first!