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# Guadalajara Chivas Edge Past FC Juarez in Late Drama

Guadalajara Chivas secured a narrow victory over FC Juarez with a dramatic stoppage-time goal from Roberto Alvarado, who struck in the 90th minute to settle a tightly contested affair. The result came as something of a surprise given the pre-match prediction heavily favored a draw at 76 percent, with both sides rated at just 12 percent to win. Alvarado's late heroics proved decisive in what had been a closely fought battle throughout, showcasing his quality when it mattered most with an 8.5 rating, the highest on the pitch.

Guadalajara's midfield and defense controlled much of the contest, with Luis Romo and Fernando González both delivering commanding performances to earn ratings of 8.2 and 8.0 respectively. The home side's ability to break the deadlock so late in the match demonstrated their composure and attacking threat, ultimately justifying their narrow advantage in the statistical prediction compared to their visitors. Despite the model's expectation of a stalemate, Chivas found the breakthrough when it counted to claim all three points.

Estadio Akron
🏟️ Estadio Akron Zapopan
Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/25 · 23:07
Round
Apertura - 2
Stadium
Estadio Akron — Zapopan
Referee
César Ramos Palazuelos
AI predictionExpected goals 0.5 : 0.2
🧠 The model favours a draw at 55%, with expected goals 1-0.
Guadalajara Chivas 36% Draw 55% FC Juarez 9%
Guadalajara Chivas 0% Draw 0% FC Juarez 0%
0 votes
Confidence 50% Medium confidence
📉 Poor form FC Juarez 🤝 H2H advantage Guadalajara Chivas 🔒 Tight, low-scoring
Most likely score 0 - 0 50%
Both teams to score 7% No
Over / Under 2.5 Under 97%
Over 2.5 3%Under 2.5 97%
Win Probability
100%
Guadalajara Chivas 100% Draw 0% FC Juarez 0%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Guadalajara Chivas
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Team comparison API-Football
Guadalajara Chivas FC Juarez
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
0%
Team strength
71%
H2H
0%Strength0%
0%Attacking strength0%
33%Defensive strength67%
0%Poisson distribution0%
71%Head-to-head29%
71%Expected goals29%
0%
Team strength
29%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Double chance : Guadalajara Chivas or draw
Head-to-head Last 10
5Guadalajara Chivas win
4Draw
1FC Juarez win
2026/01/14 FC Juarez 0 : 1 Guadalajara Chivas
2025/08/16 Guadalajara Chivas 1 : 2 FC Juarez
2025/03/16 FC Juarez 1 : 1 Guadalajara Chivas
2024/08/31 Guadalajara Chivas 5 : 0 FC Juarez
2024/02/10 Guadalajara Chivas 2 : 1 FC Juarez
2023/08/19 FC Juarez 1 : 1 Guadalajara Chivas
2023/01/29 FC Juarez 1 : 2 Guadalajara Chivas
2022/07/02 Guadalajara Chivas 0 : 0 FC Juarez
2022/02/10 FC Juarez 1 : 3 Guadalajara Chivas
2021/08/07 Guadalajara Chivas 2 : 2 FC Juarez
Key events
🟨H. Ortega
Yellow Card
46'
🔄E. AlvarezJ. Carrillo
Substitution
61'
🔄F. J. Nevarez PulgarinJ. Aquino
Substitution
66'
🔄J. M. Torres Ramirez I.Ricardinho
Substitution
66'
🔄MonchuH. Ortega
Substitution
66'
🔄L. DupuyO. Estupinan
Substitution
70'
🔄R. MarinR. Ledezma
Substitution
74'
🔄K. CastanedaB. Gutierrez
Substitution
74'
🔄D. Campillo Del CampoJ. Castillo
Substitution
74'
🔄Juarez RicardoG. Sepulveda
Substitution
82'
🟨J. M. Torres Ramirez I.
Yellow Card
87'
🟨R. Marin
Yellow Card
90'
🔄J. PerezB. Gonzalez
Substitution
90+3'
R. AlvaradoAssists R. Marin
goals
90+6'
Lineup
1
Raúl Rangel 6.9
2
José Castillo 7.2
7
Luis Romo 8.2
23
Daniel Aguirre 7.9
28
Fernando González 8
5
Bryan González 6.9
33
Jordan Carrillo 6.2
11
Brian Gutiérrez 7.3
37
Richard Ledezma 7.5
34
Armando González 6.3
25
Roberto Alvarado 8.5
1
Sebastián Jurado 7.9
4
Alejandro Mayorga 6.2
23
Haret Ortega 7.3
3
Jesús Murillo 7.6
2
Gilberto Sepúlveda 7.2
20
Javier Aquino 7.2
11
José Luis Rodríguez 6.7
8
Guilherme Castilho 6.7
5
Denzell Garcia 7.5
21
Ricardinho 6.3
19
Óscar Estupiñán 6.7
Player rating API-Football
Guadalajara Chivas
25
Roberto Alvarado
FWD · 90′ · ⚽1
8.5
7
Luis Romo C
DEF · 90′
8.2
28
Fernando González
MID · 90′
8
23
Daniel Aguirre
DEF · 90′
7.9
37
Richard Ledezma
MID · 74′
7.5
17
Ricardo Marín
FWD · 16′ · 🅰️1 · 🟨 · Substitute
7.5
11
Brian Gutiérrez
MID · 74′
7.3
19
Kevin Castañeda
MID · 16′ · Substitute
7.3
2
José Castillo
DEF · 74′
7.2
1
Raúl Rangel
GK · 90′
6.9
5
Bryan González
MID · 89′
6.9
10
Efrain Alvarez
FWD · 29′ · Substitute
6.6
3
Diego Campillo
DEF · 16′ · Substitute
6.6
34
Armando González
FWD · 90′
6.3
33
Jordan Carrillo
MID · 61′
6.2
18
Jonathan Perez
MID · 1′ · Substitute
13
Óscar Whalley
GK · 0′ · Substitute
24
Miguel Gómez
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
56
Ángel Chávez
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
16
Luis Gabriel Rey
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
67
Sergio Armando Aguayo Castillo
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
FC Juarez
1
Sebastián Jurado C
GK · 90′
7.9
3
Jesús Murillo
DEF · 90′
7.6
5
Denzell Garcia
MID · 90′
7.5
23
Haret Ortega
DEF · 66′ · 🟨
7.3
20
Javier Aquino
DEF · 66′
7.2
2
Gilberto Sepúlveda
DEF · 82′
7.2
33
Francisco Nevarez
DEF · 24′ · Substitute
6.9
8
Guilherme Castilho
MID · 90′
6.7
11
José Luis Rodríguez
MID · 90′
6.7
19
Óscar Estupiñán
FWD · 70′
6.7
6
Monchu
MID · 24′ · Substitute
6.7
198
Ricardo Juárez
DEF · 8′ · Substitute
6.5
21
Ricardinho
MID · 66′
6.3
10
Jairo Torres
FWD · 24′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.3
17
Luca Martínez Dupuy
FWD · 20′ · Substitute
6.3
4
Alejandro Mayorga
DEF · 90′
6.2
27
Guillermo Ruiz
GK · 0′ · Substitute
7
Raymundo Fulgencio
MID · 0′ · Substitute
25
Said Godínez
MID · 0′ · Substitute
201
Jan Carmona
MID · 0′ · Substitute
29
Ettson Ayón
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
36% Shot Accuracy
89% Pass Accuracy
78% Possession
Guadalajara Chivas FC Juarez
1.90Expected Goals (xG)0.49
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
22Shots6
8Shots on Target0
5Shots off Target6
15Shots Inside Box3
7Shots Outside Box3
9Blocked Shots0
725Passes212
643Accurate Passes148
19Corners2
2Offsides0
0Goalkeeper saves7
13Tackles18
5Interceptions10
0Blocks (defensive)9
57Duels Won53
11Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
Red Cards
0% Shot Accuracy
70% Pass Accuracy
22% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Guadalajara Chivas
Efrain Alvarez
4
Luis Romo
3
Brian Gutiérrez
3
Daniel Aguirre
2
Bryan González
2
Roberto Alvarado
2
FC Juarez
Alejandro Mayorga
1
Denzell Garcia
1
Guilherme Castilho
1
José Luis Rodríguez
1
Francisco Nevarez
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Club Tijuana 2200 +36
2 Cruz Azul 2200 +26
3 Atlas 2200 +26
4 Necaxa 2200 +26
5 Club America 2110 +14
6 CF Pachuca 2101 +23
7 Toluca 2101 +13
8 Monterrey 2101 +03
9 Club Queretaro 2101 +03
10 Puebla 2101 +03
11 Guadalajara Chivas 2101 −13
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2101 −23
13 Atletico San Luis 2011 −11
14 Atlante FC 2011 −11
15 Tigres UANL 2011 −21
16 Leon 2002 −20
17 Santos Laguna 2002 −20
18 FC Juarez 2002 −20
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