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# Necaxa Stuns Monterrey in Dramatic Comeback Victory

Necaxa pulled off a stunning upset against Monterrey with a 2-1 victory that defied preseason expectations heavily favoring the visitors. The match turned decisively when Monterrey's Sergio Medina received a red card in the twentieth minute, leaving the visitors a man down for the majority of the contest. Necaxa capitalized on their numerical advantage when Javier Carranza broke through in the fifty-sixth minute, and despite Lucas Ocampos equalizing for Monterrey just eleven minutes later, Javier Valencia sealed the upset with a dramatic ninetieth-minute winner.

The result represented a significant shock given that prediction models had given Monterrey only a fifty-six percent chance of victory before kickoff. Despite the loss, Monterrey's goalkeeper Luis Cárdenas delivered an outstanding performance with a rating of 8.9, while Necaxa's Mauro Zaleta and Ocampos both earned strong marks in the 7.7 range. The home side's composure in the final moments proved decisive, converting their chances when it mattered most against a Monterrey side that fought hard despite their reduction in numbers.

Estadio Victoria
🏟️ Estadio Victoria Aguascalientes
Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/26 · 23:00
Round
Apertura - 2
Stadium
Estadio Victoria — Aguascalientes
Referee
Ivan Antonio Lopez Sanchez
AI predictionExpected goals 0.7 : 1.5
🧠 The model favours Monterrey at 56%, with expected goals 1-2, and the likeliest scorer is L. Ocampos (59%).
Necaxa 17% Draw 27% Monterrey 56%
Necaxa 0% Draw 0% Monterrey 0%
0 votes
Confidence 65% Medium confidence
📈 In great form Necaxa 🤝 H2H advantage Monterrey
Most likely score 0 - 1 17%
Both teams to score 39% No
Over / Under 2.5 Under 62%
Over 2.5 38%Under 2.5 62%
Win Probability
100%
Necaxa 100% Draw 0% Monterrey 0%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Necaxa
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
L. Ocampos
✈️ Monterrey
59%
R. de la Rosa
✈️ Monterrey
45%
J. Carranza
🏠 Necaxa
30%
J. Corona
✈️ Monterrey
26%
M. Pedroza
🏠 Necaxa
16%
Team comparison API-Football
Necaxa Monterrey
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
50%
Team strength
0%
H2H
50%Strength50%
40%Attacking strength60%
67%Defensive strength33%
0%Poisson distribution0%
0%Head-to-head100%
14%Expected goals86%
50%
Team strength
100%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Combo Double chance : draw or Monterrey and +1.5 goals
Head-to-head Last 9
0Necaxa win
0Draw
9Monterrey win
2026/01/14 Necaxa 0 : 2 Monterrey
2025/08/24 Monterrey 3 : 0 Necaxa
2025/02/02 Monterrey 1 : 0 Necaxa
2024/07/18 Necaxa 0 : 1 Monterrey
2024/04/29 Necaxa 2 : 5 Monterrey
2023/11/01 Monterrey 3 : 0 Necaxa
2023/02/19 Monterrey 2 : 1 Necaxa
2022/08/13 Necaxa 1 : 2 Monterrey
2022/01/15 Necaxa 0 : 4 Monterrey
Key events
🟨R. Monreal
Yellow Card
5'
🟥S. Medina
Red Card
20'
🟨L. Faravelli
Yellow Card
27'
🟨R. Chavez
Yellow Card
32'
🟨C. Salcedo
Yellow Card
36'
🔄E. RodriguezR. Monreal
Substitution
46'
🔄O. PinedaJ. Corona
Substitution
46'
J. CarranzaAssists F. Mendez
goals
56'
🔄H. CuypersD. Rossi
Substitution
60'
🔄A. AcevesG. Arteaga
Substitution
60'
L. Ocampos
Goal (Penalty)
67'
🔄M. PedrozaJ. P. Torres Patino
Substitution
75'
🔄L. ReyesL. Orellano
Substitution
77'
🟨M. Varini
Yellow Card
79'
🔄R. CortezL. Faravelli
Substitution
87'
🔄M. ZaletaC. Vargas
Substitution
87'
🔄J. ValenciaJ. Ruiz
Substitution
90'
J. ValenciaAssists M. Zaleta
goals
90+1'
🔄U. DjurdjevicJ. Rodriguez
Substitution
90+3'
Lineup
12
Luis Jimenez 6.7
3
Agustín Oliveros 7.2
20
Francisco Méndez 7.2
33
Raúl Martínez 6.3
88
Carlos Vargas 7.2
6
Danny Leyva 6.9
8
Lorenzo Faravelli 6.9
30
Ricardo Monreal 6.3
10
Javier Ruiz 6.9
11
Juan Torres 6.6
9
Julián Carranza 6.9
22
Luis Cárdenas 8.9
3
Gerardo Arteaga 6.3
13
Carlos Salcedo 6.7
33
Stefan Medina 3.5
2
Ricardo Chávez 6.2
30
Jorge Rodríguez 6.3
8
Óliver Torres 7.2
7
Lucas Ocampos 7.7
17
Jesús Corona 6.7
10
Luca Orellano 6.7
9
Diego Rossi 6.2
Player rating API-Football
Necaxa
14
Mauro Zaleta
MID · 12′ · 🅰️1 · Substitute
7.7
90
Juan Valencia
FWD · 9′ · ⚽1 · Substitute
7.3
20
Francisco Méndez
DEF · 90′ · 🅰️1
7.2
3
Agustín Oliveros C
DEF · 90′
7.2
88
Carlos Vargas
MID · 87′
7.2
99
Emilio Rodriguez
MID · 45′ · Substitute
7.2
8
Lorenzo Faravelli
MID · 87′ · 🟨
6.9
6
Danny Leyva
MID · 90′
6.9
10
Javier Ruiz
FWD · 89′
6.9
9
Julián Carranza
FWD · 90′ · ⚽1
6.9
17
Rogelio Cortéz Pineda
MID · 12′ · Substitute
6.9
12
Luis Jimenez
GK · 90′
6.7
11
Juan Torres
FWD · 75′
6.6
33
Raúl Martínez
DEF · 90′
6.3
30
Ricardo Monreal
MID · 45′ · 🟨
6.3
27
Miguel Pedroza
FWD · 15′ · Substitute
6.3
1
Christopher Andrade
GK · 0′ · Substitute
5
Kaiky Naves
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
2
Emilio Martinez
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
21
Matías Espíndola
MID · 0′ · Substitute
16
Pedro Pedraza
MID · 0′ · Substitute
Monterrey
22
Luis Cárdenas
GK · 90′
8.9
7
Lucas Ocampos
MID · 90′ · ⚽1
7.7
8
Óliver Torres
MID · 90′
7.2
13
Carlos Salcedo
DEF · 90′ · 🟨
6.7
10
Luca Orellano
MID · 77′
6.7
17
Jesús Corona C
MID · 45′
6.7
99
Hugo Cuypers
FWD · 30′ · Substitute
6.5
3
Gerardo Arteaga
DEF · 60′
6.3
30
Jorge Rodríguez
MID · 89′
6.3
19
Alonso Aceves
DEF · 30′ · Substitute
6.3
21
Luis Reyes
DEF · 13′ · Substitute
6.3
2
Ricardo Chávez
DEF · 90′ · 🟨
6.2
9
Diego Rossi
FWD · 60′
6.2
25
Orbelín Pineda
MID · 45′ · Substitute
6.2
33
Stefan Medina
DEF · 20′ 🟥
3.5
32
Uroš Đurđević
FWD · 1′ · Substitute
31
César Ramos
GK · 0′ · Substitute
4
Victor Guzmán
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
11
Iker Fimbres
MID · 0′ · Substitute
5
Fidel Ambríz
MID · 0′ · Substitute
194
Cristian Reyes
MID · 0′ · Substitute
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
50% Shot Accuracy
84% Pass Accuracy
65% Possession
Necaxa Monterrey
2.92Expected Goals (xG)1.03
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
18Shots6
9Shots on Target2
6Shots off Target2
11Shots Inside Box4
7Shots Outside Box2
3Blocked Shots2
436Passes239
365Accurate Passes172
4Corners1
2Offsides2
1Goalkeeper saves7
14Tackles16
5Interceptions7
1Blocks (defensive)3
49Duels Won54
21Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
33% Shot Accuracy
72% Pass Accuracy
35% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
Necaxa
Javier Ruiz
4
Danny Leyva
3
Raúl Martínez
2
Lorenzo Faravelli
2
Carlos Vargas
2
Francisco Méndez
1
Monterrey
Óliver Torres
1
Jesús Corona
1
Orbelín Pineda
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Club Tijuana 2200 +36
2 Cruz Azul 2200 +26
3 Atlas 2200 +26
4 Necaxa 2200 +26
5 Club America 2110 +14
6 CF Pachuca 2101 +23
7 Toluca 2101 +13
8 Monterrey 2101 +03
9 Club Queretaro 2101 +03
10 Puebla 2101 +03
11 Guadalajara Chivas 2101 −13
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2101 −23
13 Atletico San Luis 2011 −11
14 Atlante FC 2011 −11
15 Tigres UANL 2011 −21
16 Leon 2002 −20
17 Santos Laguna 2002 −20
18 FC Juarez 2002 −20
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