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📝 Match Recap AI

# Pachuca Falls to Queretaro in Stunning Upset

CF Pachuca suffered a surprising defeat at home, losing 2-1 to Club Queretaro in a match that defied pre-game expectations. Despite opening the scoring early through Santiago Rondon in the third minute, Pachuca could not maintain their advantage as Queretaro mounted an impressive second-half comeback. Alfredo Avila proved to be the match winner, scoring twice—once in the fifty-eighth minute and again in the ninety-minute—to secure an unlikely victory for the visitors.

The result represented a major upset, as the model had heavily favored either a Pachuca win or a draw, assigning Queretaro just an eight percent chance of victory. Avila's outstanding performance, which earned him a nine-point-two rating, was the decisive factor in turning the match around, while Carlos Moreno's solid defensive display for Pachuca proved insufficient to prevent the collapse. Queretaro's resilience and clinical finishing ultimately made the difference in what turned out to be one of the day's most unexpected outcomes.

Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/27 · 01:06
Round
Apertura - 2
Stadium
Estadio Miguel Hidalgo — Pachuca de Soto
Referee
M. Quintero
AI predictionExpected goals 0.6 : 1.7
🧠 The model favours Club Queretaro at 64%, with expected goals 1-2, and the likeliest scorer is A. Ávila (82%).
🤖 AI won
CF Pachuca 13% Draw 23% Club Queretaro 64%
CF Pachuca 0% Draw 0% Club Queretaro 0%
0 votes
Confidence 78% High confidence
📉 Poor form CF Pachuca 🤝 H2H advantage CF Pachuca
Most likely score 0 - 1 17%
Both teams to score 37% No
Over / Under 2.5 Under 60%
Over 2.5 40%Under 2.5 60%
Win Probability
100%
CF Pachuca 0% Draw 0% Club Queretaro 100%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
A. Ávila
✈️ Club Queretaro
82%
S. Rondón
🏠 CF Pachuca
59%
E. Montiel
🏠 CF Pachuca
26%
Team comparison API-Football
CF Pachuca Club Queretaro
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
100%
Team strength
38%
H2H
100%Strength0%
100%Attacking strength0%
100%Defensive strength0%
0%Poisson distribution0%
38%Head-to-head62%
38%Expected goals63%
0%
Team strength
62%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Combo Winner : CF Pachuca and -3.5 goals
Head-to-head Last 10
4CF Pachuca win
4Draw
2Club Queretaro win
2026/02/01 Club Queretaro 0 : 0 CF Pachuca
2025/09/20 CF Pachuca 0 : 2 Club Queretaro
2025/01/30 Club Queretaro 0 : 1 CF Pachuca
2024/08/31 CF Pachuca 1 : 1 Club Queretaro
2024/03/10 CF Pachuca 1 : 2 Club Queretaro
2023/08/21 Club Queretaro 1 : 1 CF Pachuca
2023/04/30 Club Queretaro 0 : 1 CF Pachuca
2022/07/05 CF Pachuca 2 : 0 Club Queretaro
2022/02/15 CF Pachuca 2 : 2 Club Queretaro
2021/08/23 Club Queretaro 0 : 2 CF Pachuca
Key events
S. RondonAssists O. Idrissi
goals
3'
🟨B. Duarte
Yellow Card
34'
🟨Kenedy
Yellow Card
49'
A. AvilaAssists B. Duarte
goals
58'
🔄N. VallejoKenedy
Substitution
63'
🔄A. DominguezR. Pizarro
Substitution
63'
🔄W. MadridPaulo Victor
Substitution
66'
🔄M. IsaisF. Venegas
Substitution
71'
🔄C. SanchezA. Mozo
Substitution
71'
🟨C. Sanchez
Yellow Card
74'
🟨L. Abascia
Yellow Card
77'
🔄C. VillanuevaE. Gimenez
Substitution
78'
🔄A. AlcarazO. Idrissi
Substitution
84'
🔄J. MartinezM. Coronel
Substitution
85'
🔄E. PerezB. Duarte
Substitution
85'
🟨C. Villanueva
Yellow Card
90+2'
A. Avila
goals
90+4'
Lineup
25
C. Moreno 7.9
16
C. Rivera 7.3
15
F. Venegas 6.9
4
Eduardo Bauermann 6.5
22
A. Mozo 6.9
29
Kenedy 6.5
10
E. Montiel 6.6
23
S. Rondón 7.2
11
O. Idrissi 7.2
7
R. Pizarro 7
25
G. Allison 6.9
4
Carlo Adriano 6.7
27
D. Parra 6.9
2
L. Abascia 7.6
13
D. Reyes 7
16
E. Giménez 6.9
5
S. Homenchenko 7.3
9
2
A. Ávila 9.2
12
Paulo Victor 6.9
11
M. Coronel 6.3
Player rating API-Football
CF Pachuca
25
Carlos Moreno C
GK · 96′
7.9
16
Christian Rivera
MID · 96′
7.3
11
Oussama Idrissi
MID · 84′ · 🅰️1
7.2
23
Salomón Rondón
FWD · 96′ · ⚽1
7.2
7
Rodolfo Pizarro
MID · 63′
7
22
Alan Mozo
DEF · 71′
6.9
15
Francisco Venegas
DEF · 71′
6.9
2
Sergio Barreto
DEF · 96′
6.7
21
Nicolás Vallejo
FWD · 33′ · Substitute
6.7
10
Elías Montiel
MID · 96′
6.6
8
Alexei Domínguez
FWD · 33′ · Substitute
6.6
4
Eduardo Bauermann
DEF · 96′
6.5
29
Kenedy
MID · 63′ · 🟨
6.5
6
Mauricio Isais
DEF · 25′ · Substitute
6.3
14
Carlos Sánchez
DEF · 25′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.3
9
Adrián Alcaraz
MID · 12′ · Substitute
6.3
31
Jose Eulogio
GK · 0′ · Substitute
13
Jorge Berlanga
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
30
Sergio Rodríguez
MID · 0′ · Substitute
187
Gael Álvarez
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
26
Alan Bautista
MID · 0′ · Substitute
Club Queretaro
9
Ali Ávila
FWD · 96′ · ⚽2
9.2
2
Lucas Abascia
DEF · 96′ · 🟨
7.6
5
Santiago Homenchenko
MID · 96′
7.3
13
Diego Reyes C
DEF · 96′
7
25
Guillermo Allison
GK · 96′
6.9
27
Daniel Parra
DEF · 96′
6.9
16
Enzo Giménez
MID · 78′
6.9
12
Paulo Victor
MID · 66′
6.9
4
Carlo Adriano García
MID · 96′
6.7
15
Carlos Villanueva
DEF · 18′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.7
24
Bayron Duarte
DEF · 85′ · 🅰️1 · 🟨
6.6
29
Waldo Madrid
MID · 30′ · Substitute
6.5
26
Eduardo Perez
FWD · 11′ · Substitute
6.5
11
Mateo Coronel
MID · 85′
6.3
30
Mono Martínez
MID · 11′ · Substitute
6.3
1
José Hernández
GK · 0′ · Substitute
22
Jean Unjanque
MID · 0′ · Substitute
35
Juan Pablo Cázares
MID · 0′ · Substitute
18
Erik Dueñas
MID · 0′ · Substitute
20
Alejandro Alcala
MID · 0′ · Substitute
28
Jesús Arellano Camacho
MID · 0′ · Substitute
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
18% Shot Accuracy
83% Pass Accuracy
52% Possession
CF Pachuca Club Queretaro
0.86Expected Goals (xG)2.07
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
11Shots18
2Shots on Target5
7Shots off Target8
6Shots Inside Box8
5Shots Outside Box10
2Blocked Shots5
412Passes373
342Accurate Passes306
1Corners6
1Offsides6
3Goalkeeper saves1
23Tackles30
7Interceptions9
5Blocks (defensive)2
47Duels Won53
15Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
Red Cards
28% Shot Accuracy
82% Pass Accuracy
48% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
CF Pachuca
Christian Rivera
2
Elías Montiel
2
Rodolfo Pizarro
1
Oussama Idrissi
1
Salomón Rondón
1
Adrián Alcaraz
1
Club Queretaro
Enzo Giménez
3
Bayron Duarte
2
Daniel Parra
2
Carlo Adriano García
2
Paulo Victor
2
Ali Ávila
2
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Club Tijuana 2200 +36
2 Cruz Azul 2200 +26
3 Atlas 2200 +26
4 Necaxa 2200 +26
5 Club America 2110 +14
6 CF Pachuca 2101 +23
7 Toluca 2101 +13
8 Monterrey 2101 +03
9 Club Queretaro 2101 +03
10 Puebla 2101 +03
11 Guadalajara Chivas 2101 −13
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2101 −23
13 Atletico San Luis 2011 −11
14 Atlante FC 2011 −11
15 Tigres UANL 2011 −21
16 Leon 2002 −20
17 Santos Laguna 2002 −20
18 FC Juarez 2002 −20
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