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📝 Match Recap AI

# New York City FC Dominates Chicago Fire in Commanding Victory

New York City FC secured a convincing three-one victory over Chicago Fire in Major League Soccer, with the hosts establishing control early through Nicolas Mercau's tenth-minute opener. Chicago briefly leveled through J. Waterman's twenty-first-minute strike, but the momentum quickly shifted back to New York, who scored twice in rapid succession through Agustin Ojeda in the twenty-ninth minute and M. Jones before halftime. The decisive period came in that first-half stretch, where New York's attacking intensity proved too much for Chicago's defense to handle.

The performance was anchored by an outstanding display from New York's midfield and attack, with both Agustin Ojeda and Nicolas Fernández earning top ratings of eight point five, while Andrés Perea also impressed with a rating of seven point six. The result aligned well with the pre-match prediction that favored New York City with a forty-eight percent win probability, though the margin of victory suggested their dominance exceeded what the model anticipated. Chicago Fire, despite their competitive start, ultimately lacked the sustained quality needed to trouble their hosts across the ninety minutes.

Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/25 · 23:30
Round
Round 17
Stadium
Yankee Stadium — Bronx
Referee
Ricardo Montero
🩹 Absences & Injuries API-Football
New York City FC 16
D. Baiera
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
A. Martinez
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
M. Moralez
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
A. O'Neill
🩹 Ankle injury
Ruled Out
K. O'Toole
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
K. Parks
🩹 Groin injury
Ruled Out
Raul Gustavo
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
K. Trewin
🩹 Ankle injury
Ruled Out
D. Baiera
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
A. Martinez
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
M. Moralez
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
A. O'Neill
🩹 Ankle injury
Ruled Out
K. O'Toole
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
K. Parks
🩹 Groin injury
Ruled Out
Raul Gustavo
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
K. Trewin
🩹 Ankle injury
Ruled Out
Chicago Fire 8
C. Cupps
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
A. Franco
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
M. Mbokazi
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
C. Mueller
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
C. Cupps
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
A. Franco
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
M. Mbokazi
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
C. Mueller
🩹 Injury
Ruled Out
AI predictionExpected goals 2.6 : 1.8
🧠 The model favours New York City FC at 56%, with expected goals 3-2, and the likeliest scorer is N. Fernández Mercau (65%).
🤖 AI won
New York City FC 56% Draw 19% Chicago Fire 25%
New York City FC 0% Draw 0% Chicago Fire 0%
0 votes
Confidence 90% High confidence
🏠 Strong at home New York City FC 📈 In great form Chicago Fire 🚑 Key absences New York City FC 🚑 Key absences Chicago Fire 🤝 H2H advantage New York City FC ⚽ Goals expected
Most likely score 2 - 1 7%
Both teams to score 77% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Over 81%
Over 2.5 81%Under 2.5 19%
Win Probability
100%
New York City FC 100% Draw 0% Chicago Fire 0%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Scorer prediction AI
N. Fernández Mercau
🏠 New York City FC
65%
H. Cuypers
✈️ Chicago Fire
54%
Team comparison API-Football
New York City FC Chicago Fire
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
53%
Team strength
85%
H2H
53%Strength47%
44%Attacking strength56%
67%Defensive strength33%
45%Poisson distribution55%
85%Head-to-head15%
69%Expected goals31%
47%
Team strength
15%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Double chance : New York City FC or draw
Head-to-head Last 9
6New York City FC win
3Draw
0Chicago Fire win
2025/09/14 Chicago Fire 1 : 3 New York City FC
2025/05/25 New York City FC 3 : 1 Chicago Fire
2024/08/24 New York City FC 2 : 2 Chicago Fire
2024/07/14 Chicago Fire 0 : 0 New York City FC
2023/10/22 New York City FC 1 : 0 Chicago Fire
2023/03/05 Chicago Fire 1 : 1 New York City FC
2022/08/21 Chicago Fire 0 : 2 New York City FC
2022/05/22 New York City FC 1 : 0 Chicago Fire
2021/10/27 New York City FC 1 : 0 Chicago Fire
Key events
N. Mercau
goals
10'
J. Waterman
goals
21'
A. OjedaAssists A. Perea
goals
29'
M. JonesAssists A. Ojeda
goals
41'
🔄R. LewandowskiM. Haile-Selassie
Substitution
46'
🔄J. DeanL. Barroso
Substitution
46'
🟨D. D'Avilla
Yellow Card
51'
🟨N. Mercau
Yellow Card
62'
🔄M. PinedaD. D'Avilla
Substitution
63'
🔄B. TraoreM. Jones
Substitution
69'
🔄A. GutmanV. Radojevic
Substitution
71'
🔄P. DithejaneR. Lod
Substitution
71'
🟨J. Waterman
Yellow Card
77'
🟨P. Dithejane
Yellow Card
80'
🔄H. WolfTalles Magno
Substitution
85'
🔄A. FarnosJ. Shore
Substitution
85'
🔄M. IlenicA. Ojeda
Substitution
90+2'
Lineup
49
Matthew Freese 6.9
2
Nico Cavallo 7
6
James Sands 6.7
13
Thiago Martins 7
24
Tayvon Gray 7
32
Jonathan Shore 7
88
Malachi Jones 7.3
8
Andrés Perea 7.6
7
Nicolás Fernández 8.5
26
Agustin Ojeda 8.5
11
Talles Magno 6.9
1
Chris Brady 5.2
14
Viktor Radojević 6
3
Jack Elliott 6.3
16
Joel Waterman 7.5
2
Leonardo Barroso 5.9
19
Jonathan Bamba 6.3
42
Dje Tah D'Avilla 6.2
6
Anton Salétros 6.9
11
Philip Zinckernagel 7.5
7
Maren Haile-Selassie 6.5
17
Robin Lod 6.2
Player rating API-Football
New York City FC
26
Agustin Ojeda
MID · 89′ · ⚽1 · 🅰️1
8.5
7
Nicolás Fernández
MID · 90′ · ⚽1 · 🟨
8.5
8
Andrés Perea
MID · 90′ · 🅰️1
7.6
88
Malachi Jones
MID · 69′ · ⚽1
7.3
24
Tayvon Gray
DEF · 90′
7
13
Thiago Martins C
DEF · 90′
7
2
Nico Cavallo
DEF · 90′
7
32
Jonathan Shore
MID · 85′
7
49
Matthew Freese
GK · 90′
6.9
11
Talles Magno
FWD · 85′
6.9
6
James Sands
DEF · 90′
6.7
87
Arnau Farnos
FWD · 11′ · Substitute
6.7
17
Hannes Wolf
FWD · 11′ · Substitute
6.7
9
Bénie Traoré
FWD · 21′ · Substitute
6.2
35
Mitja Ilenič
DEF · 1′ · Substitute
30
Tomás Romero
GK · 0′ · Substitute
23
Max Murray
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
29
Máximo Carrizo
MID · 0′ · Substitute
15
Kevin Pierre
MID · 0′ · Substitute
99
Seymour Garfield-Reid
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
Chicago Fire
16
Joel Waterman
DEF · 90′ · ⚽1 · 🟨
7.5
11
Philip Zinckernagel
MID · 90′
7.5
24
Jonathan Dean
DEF · 45′ · Substitute
7.3
6
Anton Salétros
MID · 90′
6.9
22
Mauricio Pineda
DEF · 27′ · Substitute
6.6
7
Maren Haile-Selassie
FWD · 45′
6.5
3
Jack Elliott C
DEF · 90′
6.3
19
Jonathan Bamba
MID · 90′
6.3
15
Andrew Gutman
DEF · 19′ · Substitute
6.3
42
Dje Tah D'Avilla
MID · 63′ · 🟨
6.2
17
Robin Lod
FWD · 71′
6.2
9
Robert Lewandowski
FWD · 45′ · Substitute
6.2
12
Puso Dithejane
FWD · 19′ · 🟨 · Substitute
6.2
14
Viktor Radojević
DEF · 71′
6
2
Leonardo Barroso
DEF · 45′
5.9
1
Chris Brady
GK · 90′
5.2
44
Josh Cohen
GK · 0′ · Substitute
5
Samuel Rogers
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
35
Sergio Oregel
MID · 0′ · Substitute
20
Jason Shokalook
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
30% Shot Accuracy
81% Pass Accuracy
47% Possession
New York City FC Chicago Fire
1.39Expected Goals (xG)1.36
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
10Shots9
3Shots on Target5
4Shots off Target2
6Shots Inside Box6
4Shots Outside Box3
3Blocked Shots2
426Passes478
345Accurate Passes389
1Corners2
5Offsides1
4Goalkeeper saves0
22Tackles22
8Interceptions12
2Blocks (defensive)3
52Duels Won47
8Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
Red Cards
56% Shot Accuracy
81% Pass Accuracy
53% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
New York City FC
Andrés Perea
3
Agustin Ojeda
2
Thiago Martins
1
Jonathan Shore
1
Nicolás Fernández
1
Chicago Fire
Philip Zinckernagel
2
Leonardo Barroso
1
Jonathan Bamba
1
Jonathan Dean
1
Puso Dithejane
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
Eastern Conference
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Nashville SC 171232 +2139
2 Inter Miami 171142 +1337
3 New England Revolution 16925 +729
4 Chicago Fire 16826 +826
5 New York City FC 17746 +725
6 Charlotte 17746 +325
7 FC Cincinnati 17656 −123
8 New York Red Bulls 17647 −1122
9 DC United 17575 −322
10 Orlando City SC 17629 −1620
11 Columbus Crew 17548 −219
12 Toronto FC 17377 −816
13 CF Montreal 174310 −1115
14 Philadelphia Union 173410 −913
15 Atlanta United FC 173311 −1312
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