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📝 Match Recap AI

# St. Louis City Edge Colorado Rapids in Tight Contest

St. Louis City secured a narrow one-nil victory over Colorado Rapids in Major League Soccer, with Tomáš Ostrák settling the match with a goal in the eighty-third minute. The result aligned closely with the pre-match prediction, which favored the hosts at fifty-nine percent, though the margin of victory proved decisive in what appeared to be a competitive encounter. Colorado's prospects were significantly hampered when they were reduced to ten men following Raúl Holding's red card in the twelfth minute, a numerical disadvantage that likely influenced the match's trajectory throughout.

The performances of St. Louis City's defensive line proved crucial to their success, with Timo Baumgartl earning the match's highest rating of seven point nine and commanding at the back. Ostrák's match-winning contribution was reflected in his strong rating of seven point seven, matching that of Colorado's Miguel Navarro, who stood out as the Rapids' best performer despite his team's defeat. The early dismissal gave St. Louis City the opportunity to control proceedings, and they ultimately converted their advantage into three points through measured attacking play late in the second half.

Match info
Status
Finished
Date
2026/07/26 · 00:30
Round
Round 17
Stadium
Energizer Park — St. Louis
Referee
Nabil Bensalah
🩹 Absences & Injuries API-Football
St. Louis City 2
Celio Pompeu
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
Celio Pompeu
🩹 Knee injury
Ruled Out
Colorado Rapids 6
T. Ku-DiPietro
🩹 Shoulder injury
Ruled Out
Z. Steffen
🩹 Shoulder injury
Ruled Out
J. Travis
🩹 Ankle injury
Ruled Out
T. Ku-DiPietro
🩹 Shoulder injury
Ruled Out
Z. Steffen
🩹 Shoulder injury
Ruled Out
J. Travis
🩹 Ankle injury
Ruled Out
AI predictionExpected goals 2.0 : 0.9
🧠 The model favours St. Louis City at 60%, with expected goals 2-1.
🤖 AI won
St. Louis City 60% Draw 22% Colorado Rapids 18%
St. Louis City 0% Draw 0% Colorado Rapids 0%
0 votes
Confidence 95% High confidence
🏠 Strong at home St. Louis City 📈 In great form St. Louis City 🚑 Key absences St. Louis City 🚑 Key absences Colorado Rapids
Most likely score 1 - 0 11%
Both teams to score 51% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Over 55%
Over 2.5 55%Under 2.5 45%
Win Probability
100%
St. Louis City 100% Draw 0% Colorado Rapids 0%
75% 50%
0'Half-time 45'90'
Momentum Balanced
Live Poisson model from score, time and expected goals — for insight only. Hover any minute.
Team comparison API-Football
St. Louis City Colorado Rapids
Strength Attack Defense Poisson H2H Goals
68%
Team strength
29%
H2H
68%Strength32%
75%Attacking strength25%
50%Defensive strength50%
63%Poisson distribution37%
29%Head-to-head71%
20%Expected goals80%
32%
Team strength
71%
H2H
💡 Analysis tip: Winner : St. Louis City
Head-to-head Last 7
2St. Louis City win
2Draw
3Colorado Rapids win
2026/05/10 Colorado Rapids 0 : 1 St. Louis City
2025/05/25 Colorado Rapids 1 : 0 St. Louis City
2025/02/23 St. Louis City 0 : 0 Colorado Rapids
2024/07/08 Colorado Rapids 4 : 1 St. Louis City
2024/06/20 St. Louis City 0 : 3 Colorado Rapids
2023/07/02 St. Louis City 2 : 0 Colorado Rapids
2023/04/23 Colorado Rapids 1 : 1 St. Louis City
Key events
🟥R. Holding
Red Card
12'
🔄M. NavarroD. Sealy
Substitution
17'
🟨H. Ojediran
Yellow Card
25'
🟨C. Durkin
Yellow Card
45+3'
🔄G. MinoungouD. Yapi
Substitution
46'
🔄N. CobbR. Cannon
Substitution
46'
🔄K. ThompsonH. Ojediran
Substitution
55'
🔄E. LowenS. Jeong
Substitution
58'
🟨J. Atencio
Yellow Card
68'
🔄W. FrederickJ. Atencio
Substitution
69'
🔄T. OstrakC. Durkin
Substitution
76'
🔄P. AultS. Becher
Substitution
76'
T. OstrakAssists T. Totland
goals
83'
🔄L. MacNaughtonJ. Orozco
Substitution
87'
🔄M. PerezM. Hartel
Substitution
87'
🟨K. Thompson
Yellow Card
90+6'
Lineup
1
Roman Bürki 6.6
21
Dante Polvara 7.2
32
Timo Baumgartl 7.9
99
Jaziel Orozco 7.3
14
Tomas Totland 7
24
Daniel Edelman 6.7
8
Christopher Durkin 6.5
6
Conrad Wallem 6.3
17
Marcel Hartel 7.2
11
Simon Becher 6.3
77
Jeong Sang-bin 6.9
41
Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen 6.9
5
Loïc Williams 6.2
6
Rob Holding 3
22
Lucas Herrington 7
4
Reggie Cannon 6.3
8
Hamzat Ojediran 6.6
12
Josh Atencio 6.3
10
Paxten Aaronson 6.9
7
Dante Sealy 6.3
9
Rafael Navarro 7.2
77
Darren Yapi 6.6
Player rating API-Football
St. Louis City
32
Timo Baumgartl
DEF · 92′
7.9
7
Tomáš Ostrák
MID · 16′ · ⚽1 · Substitute
7.7
99
Jaziel Orozco
DEF · 87′
7.3
21
Dante Polvara
DEF · 92′
7.2
17
Marcel Hartel
FWD · 87′
7.2
14
Tomas Totland
MID · 92′ · 🅰️1
7
77
Jeong Sang-bin
FWD · 58′
6.9
10
Eduard Löwen
MID · 34′ · Substitute
6.9
24
Daniel Edelman
MID · 92′
6.7
1
Roman Bürki C
GK · 92′
6.6
8
Christopher Durkin
MID · 76′ · 🟨
6.5
29
Palmer Ault
MID · 16′ · Substitute
6.5
6
Conrad Wallem
MID · 92′
6.3
11
Simon Becher
FWD · 76′
6.3
5
Lukas MacNaughton
DEF · 5′ · Substitute
28
Miguel Perez
MID · 5′ · Substitute
39
Benjamin Lundt
GK · 0′ · Substitute
27
Fallou Fall
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
20
Rafael Santos
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
59
Mykhi Joyner
MID · 0′ · Substitute
Colorado Rapids
29
Miguel Navarro
DEF · 75′ · Substitute
7.7
9
Rafael Navarro
FWD · 92′
7.2
22
Lucas Herrington
DEF · 92′
7
41
Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen
GK · 92′
6.9
10
Paxten Aaronson
MID · 92′
6.9
93
Georgi Minoungou
FWD · 47′ · Substitute
6.9
24
Noah Cobb
DEF · 47′ · Substitute
6.7
8
Hamzat Ojediran
MID · 55′ · 🟨
6.6
77
Darren Yapi
FWD · 45′
6.6
13
Wayne Frederick
MID · 23′ · Substitute
6.5
4
Reggie Cannon
DEF · 45′
6.3
12
Josh Atencio
MID · 69′ · 🟨
6.3
7
Dante Sealy
FWD · 17′
6.3
33
Kosi Thompson
DEF · 37′ · Substitute
6.3
5
Loïc Williams C
DEF · 92′
6.2
6
Rob Holding
DEF · 12′ 🟥
3
31
Adam Beaudry
GK · 0′ · Substitute
2
Keegan Rosenberry
DEF · 0′ · Substitute
16
Alex Harris
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
32
Donavan Phillip
FWD · 0′ · Substitute
Live commentary AI
Preparing…
Match statistics
16% Shot Accuracy
90% Pass Accuracy
66% Possession
St. Louis City Colorado Rapids
1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.11
The quality of chances each team created — how many goals it "deserved" based on the danger of its shots.
19Shots2
3Shots on Target0
6Shots off Target2
15Shots Inside Box1
4Shots Outside Box1
10Blocked Shots0
553Passes284
498Accurate Passes227
9Corners1
3Offsides0
0Goalkeeper saves2
7Tackles9
6Interceptions10
0Blocks (defensive)10
29Duels Won39
20Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
0% Shot Accuracy
80% Pass Accuracy
34% Possession
Chance Creators (Key Passes) API-Football
St. Louis City
Marcel Hartel
4
Dante Polvara
3
Christopher Durkin
2
Eduard Löwen
2
Timo Baumgartl
1
Conrad Wallem
1
Colorado Rapids
Miguel Navarro
1
Key passes = a pass leading directly to a teammate's shot (the available proxy for expected assists / xA).
Standings
Western Conference
#TeamPWDL+/−Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 161033 +2133
2 Los Angeles FC 181035 +1633
3 San Jose Earthquakes 171034 +1533
4 Real Salt Lake 16826 +426
5 Houston Dynamo 16826 −126
6 FC Dallas 17755 +726
7 St. Louis City 17746 +025
8 Seattle Sounders 16736 −124
9 Minnesota United FC 17656 −523
10 Portland Timbers 17638 −121
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 18567 −521
12 San Diego 17557 +320
13 Colorado Rapids 176110 +119
14 Austin 17458 −1317
15 Sporting Kansas City 174211 −2614
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